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By DON FENLEY

Annualized home sales tracked by the TCI Group reached 7,044 units in mid-March 2026, extending a rebound that now spans nine consecutive months of gains. It suggests the Tri-Cities housing market may be establishing a more durable floor after a prolonged correction, according to the organization’s latest data.

The potential primary headwind to a firmer recovery is the economic fallout of the Middle East war.  Moody’s Chief Economist, Mark Zandi, has upgraded the odds of a recession, saying an economic downturn will be “difficult to avoid” if oil prices remain elevated.

TCI is the region’s largest commercial real estate firm. It tracks residential inventory as a leading indicator of household wealth formation and consumer demand which signals retail, office and mixed-use investment conditions.

The mid-March figure — the highest since May 2023 — represents a 6.8% increase from a cycle trough of 6,596 recorded in June 2025, and marks the first time sales have held above 7,000 for three straight months since mid-2023. The market nonetheless remains roughly 20% below the all-time peak of 8,794 reached in September 2021.

A Market Transformed by the Pandemic

The data, spanning January 2019 through mid-March 2026, captures the full arc of a historic housing cycle. Sales were quietly stable in the pre-pandemic period, holding in a narrow band between roughly 6,200 and 6,300 units through the first half of 2019 before beginning a gradual ascent into late 2019 and early 2020.

The COVID-19 pandemic proved to be an accelerant. Remote work, historically low mortgage rates, and shifting household formation patterns sent annualized sales surging from 7,144 in May 2020 to 8,794 by September 2021,  a 23% jump in just 16 months.

The retreat was equally dramatic. As the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates beginning in 2022, sales fell nearly every month for two consecutive years, ultimately retreating close to pre-pandemic baseline levels. By May 2023, sales had slipped to 7,011 — effectively erasing all pandemic-era gains — before sliding further to a low of 6,596 in mid-2025.

Why Annualized Figures Matter

Economists and housing analysts favor annualized sales data because the metric smooths out the seasonal volatility inherent in monthly home purchase activity allowing for more meaningful comparisons across time. By projecting a given period’s pace over a full year, annualized figures reveal the underlying trend rather than noise, making it easier to identify turning points in longer cycles. The TCI Group’s series for this report covers more than seven years and  illustrates how that approach can distinguish a genuine cyclical shift from routine seasonal fluctuation.

A Recovery With More Conviction

The inclusion of mid-March data adds weight to what had appeared to be a tentative upturn. Sales have now risen in nine of the past 10 months, and the consecutive readings above 7,000 in January, February, and mid-March 2026 – at 6,919, 7,018, and 7,044, respectively suggests the recovery is not simply a seasonal lift. That three-month cluster above the 7,000 threshold is a benchmark the market failed to sustain during a brief attempted recovery in early 2024.

Still, the pace of the rebound remains modest relative to the velocity of the prior two-year decline, and the market has yet to recapture pre-pandemic baseline levels on an inflation-adjusted basis.

Categories: REAL ESTATE