By DON FENLEY

The dream of homeownership has grown significantly more expensive across Northeast Tennessee’s three major metro areas since the 2019 pre-pandemic benchmark. Monthly housing costs have roughly doubled, and some income-to-housing ratios are at levels that financial advisors consider financially strained or outright unaffordable.

The most extreme example, according to data from the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s Home Ownership Affordability Monitor, is the Johnson City metro area. A typical buyer there now spends 42 cents of every dollar of household income on housing. That’s up from 25 cents in January 2019. Housing economists consider anything above 30% a sign of affordability stress.

Johnson City Bears the Heaviest Burden

Of the three markets analyzed, the Johnson City metro, which includes Washington, Unicoi, and Carter counties, recorded the sharpest deterioration in affordability in a Jan. 2019 – Jan. 2026 comparison. Median home prices climbed from $157,283 in 2019 to $289,833 in 202, an 84% increase. Over the same period, median household income rose 24%, from $46,184 to $57,362.

The result is a typical monthly housing payment ballooned from $957 to $2,008, a 110% increase. The ratio of income spent on housing jumped 17 percentage points, from 25% to 42%.

Kingsport-Bristol Sees Sharpest Income Gains, but Costs Still Surge

The Kingsport-Bristol metro recorded the most favorable income trend among the three markets. Median household income rose 45% over the seven-year period, from $46,081 to $67,034. But even that gain couldn’t keep pace with housing costs.

Median home prices in Kingsport-Bristol rose 85%, from $131,733 to $243,089. The total monthly payment – including principal and interest of $1,326, insurance of $139, property taxes of $144, and PMI of $102 – reached $1,711. The share of income consumed by housing rose from 21% to 31%, pushing the market to the edge of the affordability threshold.

Greeneville Market Mirrors Regional Pattern

The Greeneville market, which encompasses Greene County, tracked closely with Kingsport-Bristol in terms of overall affordability outcomes. Median home prices rose from $140,333 to $242,033, an increase of 72%. Household income improved from $43,722 to $66,840, a gain of 53% – the strongest income growth of the three markets and the only factor that kept Greeneville’s affordability ratio at 30%.

A typical Greeneville buyer now faces a monthly payment of $1,672, up from $848 in 2019, with principal and interest accounting for $1,320 of that total.

The Math Behind the Squeeze

The affordability data reflects multiple compounding forces. Home prices across the region surged during and after the pandemics. Mortgage rates, which hovered near historic lows in 2020 and 2021, rose sharply amplifying the impact of higher prices.

Insurance costs have also risen meaningfully across all three markets, reflecting broader national trends in property and casualty insurance. Private mortgage insurance costs, which apply to buyers who make down payments below 20%, rose roughly 85% across the region.

Implications for Regional Housing Policy

The shift matters beyond individual household budgets. When a significant share of residents spends over 30% of income on housing, communities face downstream pressures including reduced consumer spending, increased demand for rental housing, workforce recruitment challenges and, over time, potential out-migration.

Closing the gap between income and housing costs in coming years will depend on broader labor market trends, interest rate direction and whether new housing supply enters the market at a meaningful pace.

Categories: REAL ESTATE