By DON FENLEY

Last year was a structural shift year for the Tri-Cities housing market. With 7,970 homes sold and a 5.66% median price increase, it proved resilient. But its internal makeup changed. Going forward, future gains are likely to remain concentrated in move-up and upper-tier segments unless lower-price supply meaningfully expands.

The 2025 median sales price was $280,000 and the outlook for this year is 4%. That’s the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) outlook and the local market has consistently outperformed it.

NAR’s sales outlook for this year is a 14% increase.

While the overall 2025 activity edged higher, the more important story lies beneath the headline number: where sales strengthened and softened across price tiers. Rather than a uniform lift, 2025 revealed a market reallocating demand upward, reflecting affordability pressure at the lower end and growing reliance on equity-driven buyers in higher price ranges.

This pricing reweighing sets the stage for a more selective, data-driven 2026, where outcomes hinge less on speed and more on alignment with evolving buyer capacity.

Affordable Market Under Pressure

The affordable segment remained the largest share of the market, but it was the only major tier to record a year-over-year decline. It was down 2.8% from the 2024 total. Sales softened most noticeably below $200,000, a signal that affordability was the binding constraint for many buyers.

Even with fewer transactions, this tier continues to anchor overall market stability. However, the data suggest that entry-level buyers are increasingly squeezed upward, either delaying purchases or moving into higher price brackets.

Move-Up Market: The Growth Engine

The move-up category was the clear growth leader in 2025. This tier captured buyers advancing out of affordability constraints as well as sellers redeploying accumulated equity. Sales increased 15.1% from last year.

The strength here reflects a market that is normalizing rather than overheating. Buyers are still active, but they are doing so with more financial structure and intent. The move-up segment increasingly represents the market’s center of gravity.

Luxury Market: Quietly Resilient

Luxury home sales expanded at a double-digit pace, underscoring the durability of high-income and equity-rich demand. Sales were up 11.1% from last year. This tier remains the least sensitive to interest-rate fiction and continues to benefit from migration, wealth transfer, and cash-assisted purchases.

While luxury accounts for a smaller share of total transactions, its steady expansion adds important support to overall market volume.

Categories: REAL ESTATE