By DON FENLEY

Sullivan and Washington counties remain among the least vulnerable housing markets in the United States, according to the fourth-quarter 2025 housing risk analysis from ATTOM.

The report evaluates county-level housing conditions to identify markets most and least exposed to potential declines. The analysis measures risk using a combination of affordability, equity levels, foreclosure exposure, and local employment conditions.

Among the 594 counties with sufficient data for ATTOM’s Housing Risk analysis, Sullivan County ranked 520th and Washington County ranked 487th, placing them firmly within the group of markets considered least vulnerable to housing market problems. Although most local counties did not meet the benchmark to be included in the analysis, it can be assumed that the positive status of the region’s two largest markets spillover to sister markets.

Counties with the lowest rankings in the report are considered the most vulnerable, while those with the highest rankings are considered the least exposed to potential downturns.

One of the strongest indicators supporting the region’s resilience is housing affordability relative to local incomes.

In Sullivan Co. a typical household needs about 23% of annual wages to purchase a median-priced home, assuming a 20% down payment.

Washington County’s figure is 34.7%, which is still moderate by national standards.

Across the 594 counties analyzed, 55.7% of markets required residents to spend at least one-third of their annual wages to buy a median-priced home. In 15% of counties, homeowners would need to devote more than half of their income to housing costs.

Despite those favorable rankings, national housing pressures remain elevated.

“As home prices softened slightly in the fourth quarter, they remain historically high, keeping affordability a challenge for many buyers,” said Rob Barber, chief executive officer of ATTOM. “Foreclosure and unemployment rates have been rising year-over-year. Even as foreclosure activity normalizes, markets where prices remain high, foreclosures are rising and employment is weakening may face greater risk,” Barber said.

The report identifies vulnerable housing markets by analyzing:

• The share of homes facing potential foreclosure
• The portion of mortgages that are seriously underwater
• The percentage of local wages needed to buy a median-priced home
• Local unemployment levels

The Tennessee rankings show a wide range of housing market risk levels across the state.

Several of the state’s fastest-growing metro counties ranked higher than Sullivan and Washington counties for stability. Those included Blount County (586), Rutherford County (580), Williamson County (562), Knox County (559) and Davidson County (537).

For Sullivan and Washington counties, the rankings reflect a housing market that continues to be supported by relatively balanced fundamentals.

Compared with many larger U.S. housing markets, Northeast Tennessee benefits from:

• Lower price levels relative to income
• High homeowner equity levels built during the pandemic price surge
• Moderately paced price growth rather than extreme spikes
• Stable regional employment conditions

Those characteristics have helped insulate the region from the type of affordability stress that has pushed risk levels higher in many parts of the country.

While national housing indicators show early signs of strain, the latest county-level data suggest the Tri-Cities housing market remains positioned on the more stable side of the national housing cycle.

Categories: REAL ESTATE