By DON FENLEY

The Tri-Cities is quietly rewriting its price ceiling, and October’s numbers add more confirmation to a trend that’s no longer emerging but establishing.

So far this year, the region has recorded 74 home sales in the $1 million or above class. This time last year there were 61 sales.

Oct. Sales and Trend Summary

• Last month’s nine $1M+ sales are up 21.3% year-over-year
• Inventory is deep enough for selection, but not yet an excess
• Demand is holding into the fall slowdown
• Luxury housing is now a permanent and expanding segment
• The region is actively upgrading its economic profile

Oct. Top Sale

Last month’s top sale was a custom-built 4-bedroom, 4,465 sq. ft. home in Johnson City’s Chestnut Grove community. It sold for $1.5 million. It was one of three top-end cash sales and on the market for 87 days. The luxury home included a dedicated in-law suite and outdoor living spaces.

Six of last month’s top sales were in Johnson City – the region’s anchor for high-end sales.

Distribution of October’s $1 million-plus home sales

Luxury Is No Longer a Niche

A decade ago, million-dollar sales here were viewed as irregular outliers. That’s no longer the case. The Tri-Cities is evolving into a value-luxury destination, driven by multiple overlapping forces:

• In-migration from higher-cost metro markets
• Accumulated equity gains from longtime local homeowners
• Remote and hybrid earners choosing lifestyle over congestion
• Retiring professionals bringing urban wealth into a lower-cost region

This is not speculative demand. These are equity-driven, lifestyle-driven, and retirement-driven buyers – the most stable form of housing demand. on paper, 98 active listings against 74 year-to-date sales suggest a 13-month supply at current velocity. In a traditional market, that would indicate excess inventory. But luxury doesn’t follow traditional rules.

If current trends normalize, the Tri-Cities could see 80  $1 million-plus sales next year and punch through the triple-digit threshold in 2030 with around 100 to 110 sales.

Categories: CORE DATA