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One of the biggest advantages of watching the Tri-Cities housing market through annualized sales is spotting when trends begin to shift. The latest update from the TCI Group’s Annualized Home Sales Tracker suggests just that.

Combined with early outlooks for the market and anticipated lower mortgage rates in the latter part of the year sets the stage for another year of double-digit price appreciation for the Tri-Cities market.

Standard year-over-year comparisons still show the market moving slowly past its pre-pandemic benchmark. But when we look at annualized data, the story shifts: sales have been edging upward for three consecutive months. Because the data is smoothed over 12 months, the trend line bends gradually, but three months of steady gains signal a market quietly regaining its sales footing.

Since much of the commercial real estate market follows the pace and direction of residential activity, these insights from the TCI that are worth watching closely.

Regional Sales Trends

Across the region, activity is anchored by the $200K–$299K tier (2,148 sales in the 12-months ending in mid September) and the $300K–$399K tier (1,516). Together, they account for nearly half of all transactions. Submarket highlights include:

• Johnson City: The region’s growth leader, dominating sales in the $200K–$399K range and boasting the largest luxury footprint, with 48 homes closing above $1M.
• Bristol: Strong in the mid-market, especially at $200K–$299K (372 sales). Affordability remains steady, while luxury activity, although modest, holds its ground.
• Greeneville: The affordability anchor, led by $200K–$299K (350 sales) and $100K–$199K (171 sales). Even so, it logged nine luxury sales above $1M.
• Kingsport: Broad mid-market strength, especially in $200K–$299K (605 sales). Luxury presence is thinner compared to Johnson City and Bristol.

Inventory Trends

Active listings across the Tri-Cities in mid September total 2,940. Nearly half fall within the $200K–$399K range, aligning with the region’s strongest buyer demand. At the extremes, affordability remains tight with only 417 homes under $200K, while the luxury segment ($500K+) offers 663 homes.

• Johnson City: 1,160 listings, the deepest luxury segment (61 homes over $1M) and strong supply in $200K–$399K.
• Kingsport: 793 listings, led by $200K–$299K (252 homes—the region’s largest single tier).
• Bristol: 485 listings, mid-market heavy with a notable 21 homes over $1M.
• Greeneville: 502 listings, balanced overall, but with a tight supply below $200K.

Bottom Line

Affordability remains scarce, especially for first-time buyers, while move-up and luxury buyers have greater choice. Johnson City continues to drive high-end growth, Kingsport anchors the $200K market, and Greeneville holds the region’s most affordable base. Together, these shifts suggest the market is stabilizing—and slowly building momentum into the next cycle.

Categories: CORE DATA