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Signs that the Tri-Cities housing economy is slowly beginning to see more economic stress are showing up, but it’s nowhere close to what is being reported on the national levels

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s quarterly Household Debt and Credit Report is a current example. That report found foreclosures are up 40% from last year, but still 13% fellow a 2019 pre-pandemic level.

Local Q1 foreclosure filings are down 40% from last year and 67.7% below where they were during the first three months of 2019. But keep an eye on the month-over-month numbers as conditions roll out during what is shaping up to be a shaky year.

According to ATTOM’s April Foreclosure report, local filings were up by one from last year, still the month-over-month trend shows the pace is picking up.

ATTOM’s overall assessment of the US foreclosure market fits the local situation. “April’s foreclosure activity continued its gradual climb, with both starts and completions up annually,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “While volumes remain below historical norms, the year-over-year increases may suggest that some homeowners are beginning to feel the effects of persistent economic pressures.”

Assessment aside, the local numbers are a wide contrast to the national data.

Counties with a red bar show markets where Q1 foreclosures have increased

ATTOM’s April report shows repossessions were up 23.2% from last year. Locally they are down 40% from last year. So far this year there have been three repossessions in the region – one each in Greene Co., Hawkins Co. and Unicoi Co.

Sullivan Co. had the most new filings in April. Those 10 new filings are up from seven last year. The number is likely more about size than economic stress. Sullivan, the core county in the region’s largest urban market, was also the only county with new filings in the double-digit range.

The local foreclosure market, which was slowly beginning to soften from natural supply/demand activity, made a dramatic decline when the federal government launched a nationwide foreclosure moratorium to shelter homeowners from the Covid-19 economic fallout.

The moratoriums are history now, but the red-hot post-pandemic housing boom catapulted homeowner equity levels to record highs. Currently, a little over 60% of the region’s mortgaged properties are classified as equity rich. That means the owners have at least 50% equity in their properties.

Categories: CORE DATA