The Tri-Cities housing market’s first quarter performance data can justifiably be described as bipolar. Growth is expected locally and nationwide, but at a subdued pace. Most of the top market watchers are scaling back their 2025 outlooks and while the local market fundamentals haven’t weakened, consumer confidence is threatening to take a toll.

Local data for the first two months of the year and the TCI Group’s Annualized Housing Tracker for March data offer some contradictions to the slump, but even those silver linings to the market are beginning to tarnish.

Residential inventory is up, but new listings are down. Prices are holding their own, but sales and pending sales are not. Properties are sitting on the market for almost two weeks longer than they were this time last year. Most indicators used in commercial real estate transactions reports have softened, and unemployment is up. Commercial practitioners pay close attention to residential sales and trends since population is a primary driver of economic demand.

Local household finances and reports on the structure of the local market look fine, so far.

March’s annualized home sales total is well-above the per-pandemic number but down 0.7% from the previous month. One of the bright spots is inventory by price tiers. The Twin Cities and Greenville have a little better than five months inventory in the $300K-$399,999K sweet spot. The actual number of listings is fewer than the Johnson City and Kingsport markets, but it hasn’t gone unnoticed by buyers.

Home sales in the $200K to $299,999K price range accounted for almost a third of all sales in the Twin Cities, Johnson City, and Kingsport markets during the 12 months ending in mid-March. Greeneville’s share in that price range was 38%.

Research shows a growing demand for housing in the Tri-Cities region. Organic pent-up demand plus the continued immigration of net migration of new residents have exceeded the lack of new and existing home inventory stifled by high mortgage rates and a high percentage of owners with rates locked in when they were at the 4% and below rates. Those conditions are expected to lessen in 2025 and 2026.

Here’s the current capsule look at how local markets are doing based on inventory growth, time properties are on the market before selling and sold to list price ratio:

Bristol TN – There’s 2.1 months of inventory on the market. During the past 12 months inventory has increased 41%. The median time on market is 32 days. The market’s sold to list ratio is 97.6%.

Bristol, VA – Inventory has increased 16% in the past 12 months. Currently, there is 2.6 months of inventory, and the median time is 9 days. Sellers are getting offers close to their asking price and the market has a sold to list percentage of 94.7%.

Greeneville – This market has 2.9 months of inventory. During the past 12 months it has increased 25%. The median time on market is 57 days, and the sold to list price percentage is 95.4%.

Johnson City – The market has the tightest inventory in the region with 1.7 months of listings. Inventory has growth 7.5% in the last 12 months and the current time on market is 16 days. The sold to list price ratio is 98%.

Kingsport – Inventory has grown 8.8% in the past 12 months and the market currently has 2.1 months of listings. The median time on market is 24 days, and the sold to list price percentage is 96.8%.

Categories: CORE DATA