New residents continued flocking to the Tri-Cities last year and fueling population growth. Lst year there were 6,439 of them according the Census Bureau. But the flow is changing. In 2024 it was down 30% from the previous year. That’s 2,754 fewer new residents. It was also the second straight year local net domestic migration declined.

Those are not population numbers. Regional population growth is growing. Jeff Fleming at Move To Kingsport crunched the numbers for his “Balanced Growth: How Our Region Compares” report. It’s recommended reading and can be found by clicking here 

Our regional population is growing, but the major population driver – net domestic migration – is slowing down. Net migration is the difference between the number of people moving in and the number of people moving out. The other pieces of the demographic pie are the balance between the number of births and deaths – it continued as a negative factor – and international migration. More about that in an upcoming report.

Net domestic migration totals. Chick on chart for larger file

The Johnson City metro area saw the biggest net domestic migration decline last year. It was down 45.7%. The Greenville metro area was down 24.8% and Kingsport-Bristol was down 16.9%. Remember, this is one of those “it’s flow rate is declining, but the new residents are still headed this way” situations.

Migration peaked in the Tri-Cities in 2022, then began a sharp decline in the Kingsport-Bristol and Johnson City metro areas. Greeneville peaked in 2023. Its decline has been less dramatic.

The relocation to the Tri-Cities began before the pandemic, but as soon as restrictions were removed, the numbers ballooned. So did rents and home prices. Not all of it can be attributed to the newcomers. There’s still a big pent-up domestic housing demand. Researchers at the National Association of Realtors (NAR) say there’s about 10,000 locals on the housing market sidelines.

The softening of the net domestic migration isn’t expected to have a significant effect on the housing market. Inventory of homes for sale is slowly increasing, and builders are added to the new home stock, but filling the housing shortage – given current conditions – is still years away.

Categories: REAL ESTATE