Sullivan County’s reign as the hottest housing market in the region shows signs of slipping, but the Tri-Cities two largest counties are still among the hottest Tennessee housing markets in ATTOM Data Solutions Q1 Pre-Mover Index.
The report shows the number of properties with “pre-mover” flags in Washington County slightly higher than Sullivan County after trailing its neighbor to the north for the last half of 2017.
Both local indices point to markets that barely trail Williamson and Rutherford counties in Nashville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). They are also double the national norm, 10 points higher than the state index and more than double the Knox County index.
Using data collected from purchase loan applications on residential real estate transactions, the ATTOM Data Solutions Pre-Mover Housing Index is based on the ratio of homes with a “pre-mover” flag during a quarter to total single-family homes and condos in a given geography, indexed off the national average. An index above 100 is above the national average and indicates an above-average ratio of homes that will likely be sold in the next 90 days in a given market
Here’s how the Q1 indices look for the state’s leading counties:
Williamson – 233
Rutherford – 225
Washington – 224
Sullivan – 222
Davidson – 219
Sumner – 213
Sullivan County was the only market among the Q1 leaders with a year-over-year index increase. It was up 1%.
Washington County has the biggest decrease from last year, down 14 points.
“The pre-mover index provides insight into which markets are poised to see a high percentage of homeowners moving this spring and which markets are likely to see a high percentage of homeowners staying put,” said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions. “Markets with a high pre-mover index tend to be in areas where homes are still somewhat reasonably priced and have a growing job market, allowing for greater upward mobility. Markets with a low pre-mover index tend to be in areas with a struggling job market or with home prices that are out of reach for the average wage earner.”
Data behind the report also show Washington and Sullivan’s counties are significantly more affordable markets than the other Q1 leaders. Here’s what the percentage of income required to buy looks like in the most current report:
Williamson – 49.9%
Rutherford – 30.9%
Washington – 25.8%
Sullivan – 17.4%
Davidson – 32.3%
Sumner – 36.8%
Almost all of the Tri-Cities properties with the pre-mover flag are for a primary residence.
The share of properties for secondary homes and investment properties in Washington County was 1.7% each.
Sullivan County’s share for secondary homes with 1.2% and 1.3% were for investment properties.
The pre-mover performance rating for Washington County is 70% and 67% in Sullivan County. That performance is based on the percentage of properties with a pre-mover flag closed in 30 days.
Another “heads-up” in the data behind the report is the 2017 migration numbers. It shows Sullivan County with 1,231 new residents and Washington County with 579. That’s a reversal of what the region’s population trend has looked like for a couple of years. Migration is a major factor because the region has a negative natural population status. That simply means the death rate is higher than the birth rate so the only population growth from migration.
Using data collected from purchase loan applications on residential real estate transactions, the ATTOM Data Solutions Pre-Mover Housing Index is based on the ratio of homes with a “pre-mover” flag to total single family homes and condos in a given geography, indexed off the national average. Any index above 100 is above the national average and indicates an above-average ratio of homes that will likely be sold in the next 30 to 90 days in a given market. Historical pre-mover data going back to Q1 2014 shows that 59 percent of homes with a pre-mover flag sell within 30 days of the estimated loan settlement date that is provided in the pre-mover data, and 76 percent sell within 90 days of that settlement date. The loan application data used for the pre-mover index also includes the intended purpose of the potential purchase: primary residence, secondary (vacation) home, or investment property.