Personal income revision shows local economic recovery slower than previously reported


Revised data show the Tri-Cities economy is still clawing its way out of the black hole of the Great Recession and the process isn’t as strong as previously reported.

Across the region’s two Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) the recovery process is uneven. But as a whole, the aggregate all industry gross domestic product (GDP) is down 1.3% from 2015 and the area is down 4.8% from its pre-recession high.

KINGSPORT-BRISTOL GDP DOWN 1.7% FROM 2015

Year-over-year change for all-industry gross domestic product

Kingsport-Bristol’s trend line for its GDP wasn’t changed by the revision. It has declined for four straight years. In general terms, this means there are fewer jobs available, and generally less wealth is being generated by the economy as a whole.  The revision shows the recovery process is slower than previously reported. In 2016 it lagged its previous high by 9.6%. ($1.08 billion).

JOHNSON CITY MSA GDP DOWN 0.5% FROM 2015

Year-over-year change all-industries gross domestic product

Instead of small increases in 2014 and 2015, the Johnson City MSA saw a loss in 2014 and a bigger 2015 year-over-year gain. It was the only gain in the since 2013. Although the MSA has not recovered to its pre-recession level, it’s closer that Kingsport-Bristol. In 2016 the MSA’s real GDP was 2.7%  below its pre-recession high.

WHY THE REVISION, AND SO WHAT?

Here’s how the Bureau of Economic Analysis revision was explained, “BEA also revised GDP by metropolitan statistic area for 2001-2015. Updates incorporated revised earnings data from BEA’s Local Area Personal Income released published in November 2016.”

GDP is the best way to measure the local economy. It’s the total value of everything produced by all the people and companies – local and foreign-owned, in the target area.

Real GDP in the U.S. grew 1.7% in 2016, and that growth was led by professional and business services; information services; finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing.

HOW THE TRI COMPARES TO U.S. GROWTH

Professional and business services growth was 2.7%. It contributed to growth in 273 metro areas.

  • Kingsport-Bristol- down 5%.
  • Johnson City MSA – up 2.3%.

Information services up 6.5%. It contributed to growth in 260 metro areas.

  • Johnson City MSA – up 2.1%.
  • Kingsport-Bristol – Not listed to avoid disclosure of confidential information.

Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing grew 1.2%. Contributed to growth in 217 MSA

  • Johnson City, up 1.1%.
  • Kingsport-Bristol, down 1.7%

JOHNSON CITY MSA 2016 – 2015 SNAPSHOT

GROWTH SECTORS

  • Retail trade – up 1.3%
  • Information – up 2.1%
  • Professional and business services – up- 2.3%
  • Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing – up 1.1%.
  • Education services, health care, and social assistance – up 0.9%.
  • Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, food services – up 1.2%

LOSS SECTORS

  • Construction – down 12.5%.
  • Manufacturing – down 2.1%.
  • Durable goods and manufacturing – down 1.7%.
  • Nondurable goods manufacturing – down 2.6%.
  • Wholesale trade – down 3.2%.
  • Transportation and warehousing – down 3%.
  • Other services, except government – down 2.6%.
  • Government – down 1%.

NO CHANGE

  • Utilities – no change.

 

KINGSPORT-BRISTOL MSA

GROWTH SECTORS

  • Utilities – up 8.7%
  • Wholesale trade – up 3.6%.
  • Retail trade – up 2.6%.
  • Transportation and warehousing – up 3.4%.
  • Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodations, and food services – up 2%.
  • Government – up 0.1%.

LOSS SECTORS

  • Manufacturing – down 3.7%.
  • Durable goods and manufacturing – down 4.4%.
  • Nondurable goods manufacturing – down 3.4%
  • Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing – down 1.7%.
  • Professional and business services – down 5%.
  • Education services, health care, and social assistance – down 1.5%.

 

NOT AVAILABLE

  • Other Services – Not shown to avoid disclosure of confidential information.
  • Construction – Not shown to avoid disclosure of confidential information.

BEA does not report data when there are three or fewer employees in a sector and to preclude identification of information for a specific establishment in cases where there is a dominant establishment.

 

 

 

 

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