Attom Data Solution’s first-ever Pre-Mover Housing Index was an eye-opener for local real estate economy watchers.
Washington County had the highest index in Tennessee; the highest predictive performance rating; it’s the only county with a quarter-over-quarter index improvement; and it had the best quarter-over-quarter average property value increase in the state.
Sullivan County had an index that put it just behind the hot Nashville and Clarksville area markets and above the other East Tennessee markets.
Those are weighty market assessments for a region that is often only a second though in real estate industry discussions. And while the index is not a predictor of the number of home sales it can be viewed as a barometer for market activity.
The index flags markets with a strong above-average ratio of homes that will likely be sold in the next 30 days.
Attom bases its index on data collected from purchase loan application on residential real estate transactions. The index is based on the ratio of home with a “pre-mover” flag to the total homes in the market indexed off the national average. An index above 100 is above the national average and indicates and above-average ratio. Historical pre-mover data going back to Q1 2014 shows that 62.2% of homes with a pre-mover flag sell within 30 days of the estimated loan settlement data.
The Q1 index for Washington County is 242, the highest it has been since Q4 2014. It’s also a 41% improvement from Q1 last year. The index shows 96.5% of the pre-movers are primary residents, 1.5% are second homes and 3.7% are investment properties.
Sullivan County has an index of 211, the best since Q1 2015. That’s a 22% improvement from Q1 2016. Primary residences dominated the pre-mover homes at 96.2% while 2.5% were second homes and 2.5% were investment properties.
Here’s what the index looked like for other state markets:
Rutherford County – 237.
Williamson County – 232.
Davidson County – 222.
Montgomery County – 221.
Sumner County – 206.
Hamilton County – 147.
Knox County – 134.
Shelby County – 106.
Sevier County – 78.
“The first quarter pre-mover data reinforces that home buyers in 2017 are more likely to be moving to markets — or moving up within markets — that still have relatively affordable housing inventory along with access to jobs,” said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions. “The pre-mover data also shows a similar migration toward affordability at the county level.”