Tri-Cities home prices settled and finished 2016 in a pattern than lined up on both the CoreLogic Home Price Indexes and the Northeast Tennessee Association of Realtors Trends Report.
That a good sign because while the two reports focus on home prices they draw on separate data resources. There are some variations – but they are not significant. While the Kingsport-Bristol MSA shows prices making conservative gains from both sources, the Johnson City Market saw a slightly HPI year-over-year decline. The Trends Report YTD reports show a 1.8% increase from December last year.
As the chart illustrates all of the markets fell into a stabilizing pattern in late Spring. The only exception was Kingsport-Bristol. The price trend line in that four-county market made some big swings in September and October when compared to what the Johnson City MSA market was doing.
The big takeaway is prices are higher than last year, with the Johnson City HPI exception.
According to CoreLogic Johnson City MSA, home prices declined by 0.4% from December last year. That could change with next month’s report because revisions – both up and down – are common. The Trends Report annual YTD price is up 1.8% from last year.
Home Princes in Kingsport-Bristol increased 3% over December last year and by 2.3% on the Trends Report.
CoreLogic’s reports show a 7.2% December increase for Tennessee and on the national level. That increase was a reflection of the strong December in major metro markets, according to Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic.
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 4.7% on a year-over-year basis from December 2016 to December 2017. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state. The forecast is a national projection and not available on state or local levels.
The CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the Single-Family Combined tier representing the most comprehensive set of properties (including all sales for Single-Family Attached and Single-Family Detached properties). The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
NETAR’s Trends Report is released monthly and reflects the average sales price of single-family residential sales of properties listed on the regional Multiple Listing Service.