Summary

Tennessee is still one of the most popular move-in states. But the wave is receding. Three of the state’s four ranked cities slipped in the latest PODS report. Johnson City fell four spots and almost out of the top 20 rankings. New national data shows who is still moving and why. One-way moves with U – Haul don’t include all newcomers, but it is representative of the relocation trend.

Two noteworthy changes are: Older adults are now the most active movers, and affordability drives more relocations than career. That mix favors the Tri-Cities. Regional home prices here are the lowest of the East Tennessee metros, and price is the main reason people pick a place.

By DON FENLEY

Tennessee tied Florida as the No. 1 move-in state in the 2026 PODS Moving Trends Report. And affordability is one thing that keeps the stream flowing into the Tri-Cities. It is the region’s edge. The surge that defined past years has definitely ebbed. Three of the four Tennessee cities on the top 20 list slipped this year. Johnson City, which at one time was the top spot on the Tennessee relocation list, fell the furthest. It dropped four spots and almost off the top 20 leaderboard. Only Knoxville held its ground. Memphis landed on the move-out list for the first time. The state is still winning newcomers, but the surge that defined the past few years is easing.

Memphis also debuted on the 2026 move-out list, ranking 20th. It was the state’s first appearance among the top places people are leaving.

Affordability now beats a paycheck

The reasons people move has also shifted. Affordability is now the top motivator, cited by 58% of movers surveyed for the study. Community and connection came in second at 41%. A job opportunity drove only 28% of moves.

The pull of home is even stronger than the numbers suggest. Nearly half of movers said they would turn down a higher-paying job if it required a move away from their support network. People are choosing places they can afford and stay rooted in. That is a tailwind for lower-cost regions like the Tri-Cities.

Who is moving tells you who is coming

The mid-year report tracked one-way moves from July 2025 through June 2026. It found that a mover’s generation shapes the destination. Baby boomers are heading to the Carolinas and the rest of the Southeast. Gen X and millennials point to Florida and Texas first. Gen Z favors Texas and California, then New York.

Millennials and Gen X make up more than 60% of all one-way moves. They are also the most active movers on the road right now. They’re in their 40s, 50s and 60s. Boomers add an older layer on top. The generations doing the most moving lean toward the Southeast, and the Tri-Cities sits in their path.

Tennessee is among the top location for Baby Boomers and GenXer. That points to an older newcomer wave for the region. Most new residents likely fall between their mid-40s and their late 70s. Johnson City runs a little younger because it is a college town. Both patterns match the region’s own new-resident data.

The price line the Tri-Cities sits under

Home builders read migration as a demand signal, and price is the filter. Zonda, a leading data and analytics provider for the residential construction and housing market, found that the markets pulling the most domestic migrants tend to keep home prices at or below about $400,000. Above that line, buyer capacity thins out.

The Tri-Cities sit well under it. The region’s mid-year 2026 median home price was a little over $300,000, the lowest of the East Tennessee metros. That gap is the region’s runway. It leaves room to attract buyers who are priced out of hotter, costlier markets.

The daily math behind the trend

The flow of new residents is a top local concern because the Tri-Cities loses more residents to death than it gains through birth each year. That’s called natural population decrease. In-migration is what keeps the region growing.

The scale is easy to picture. The region needs a little more than 10 new residents every day to offset its death rate. Everything above that line is growth. So far, the bulk of that growth has been in Johnson City and Jonesborough.

Sources: PODS 2026 Moving Trends Report (net long-distance customer moves, January 2025 through March 2026) and the PODS Moving Mindset Study; U-Haul 2026 Midyear Migration Trends (one-way equipment moves, July 2025 through June 2026); and Zonda domestic migration analysis. The regional home price is the Tri-Cities mid-year 2026 median. Regional population context reflects natural decrease, where deaths outnumber births, offset by in-migration.

Categories: TRENDS