By DON FENLEY

The TCI Group’s Annualized Home Sales Tracker and Inventory Monitor are signaling that the Tri-Cities housing market has hit a plateau – one that still leans toward sellers

Annualized sales slipped 0.1% in mid-July and ended 12 straight months of increases. That shift matters more than the small number attached to it. The market moved to steadier footing.

More listings, but demand kept pace

Listings rose 1.2% from mid-July last year. Even so, months of supply was up only slightly from a year earlier. That small change is the real story. Buyers absorbed nearly all the new inventory.

A balanced market usually runs 5 to 6 months of supply, and the Tri-Cities is well under that in all but the upper price brands of the move-up market. The added listings gave buyers a little more choice without tipping the market away from sellers.

Affordability is the ceiling

Overall home prices rose 3.36% during the first half of the year, according to the Northeast Tennessee Association of Realtors (NETA) while mortgage rates sat near 6.5%. Demand stayed strong enough to soak up the new listings, but the payment math limits how much further sales can grow. Each price gain pushes the next buyer closer to the edge of what they can afford. That ceiling, more than any shortage of homes, is what flattened the annual sales pace.

New construction stays on the sidelines

At mid-year new home sales were flat, 401 in 2025 and 404 in 2026. New home prices jumped 14.8% over the same period. Builders moved about the same number of homes at much higher prices. That segment added almost no volume and did nothing to widen the supply of lower-priced homes.

What to watch

The number to track is months of supply. It has held near 3.5, well under the 5 to 6 months that marks a balanced market. A steady climb toward that range would signal a real shift toward buyers. Until then, the market stays tight even as the annual sales pace holds flat. The second signal is price growth. If it slows further, affordability could ease enough to draw priced-out buyers back.

Categories: REAL ESTATE