Annualized home sales across the Tri-Cities have climbed for a full year. A year of steady gains points to a market on solid footing. This was a slow, broad climb. Annualized totals rise only when a market adds sales faster than it loses them.

The news comes from the TCI Group Annualized Home Sales Tracker. The tracker rolls 12 months of closings into a single running total. That smooths out the month-to-month swings and shows the market’s true direction. Commercial real estate practitioners watch it because housing demand shapes much of what they plan for.

Rooftops bring shoppers, so retail tends to follow home sale patterns. A residential market that gains ground for a full year points to a region adding people and income. That’s the kind of base that supports new commercial investment. When home sales stall, commercial demand often softens next. Watching the residential trend gives practitioners an early read on where their own market is headed.

One market sets the pace for the entire region, and that market is Johnson City. It accounts for more than four out of every 10 sales in the Tri-Cities. Johnson City closed 2,982 sales in the 12 months ending in mid-June. That is 41% of the four-region total. Kingsport was next at 1,942 sales, or 27%. Bristol came in at 1,301, and Greeneville at 996. Johnson City alone outsold Kingsport and Greeneville combined.

Johnson City also sells higher up the price ladder. More than a third of its sales were priced at $400,000 or more. Kingsport leans the other way. Most of its sales fell under $400,000, which makes it the region’s value market. But the real engine sits in the middle for every region. Homes priced from $200,000 to $399,999 made up 55% of all Tri-Cities sales. The single busiest price band was $200,000 to $299,999. It accounted for about a third of the market. Whatever happens to that mid-tier sets the tone for the entire region.

Price, not place, decides who holds the upper hand in a deal. The pattern looks the same in every region. Less expensive homes are scarce. What changes is the price point where each market tips from the seller’s favor to the buyer’s.

A balanced market holds about 5 to 6 months of inventory. Less than that favors sellers. More than that favors buyers. Across the Tri-Cities, homes under $400,000 stay firmly in the seller’s camp. Supply runs tight, and buyers face the most competition there. The market reaches balance in the $400,000 to $499,999 band at 5.6 months. Above $500,000 it tips to the buyer’s side and stays there to the top.

The squeeze is hardest at the bottom. Homes under $200,000 carry less than 4 months of supply in all four regions. First-time and budget buyers face the toughest fight, no matter which region they shop in. The upper end tells the reverse story. Greeneville is the clearest case. It carries years of standing inventory above $400,000. Sellers there hold little leverage. A buyer above $500,000 has room to negotiate in every town. The most room of all sits in Greeneville and at the top of the Kingsport and Bristol markets.

One figure in the high end runs against the grain. The $800,000 to $899,999 band shows more supply than the band just above it. That looks backward, but it is real. A few thin, slow-moving listings in a small market can swing the math hard. It is a quirk of small numbers, not a sign that the top of the market is turning.

Categories: REAL ESTATE