By DON FENLEY

The Tri-Cities region is growing, driven primarily by Johnson City and, on a percentage basis, Jonesborough. Kingsport and Bristol are holding their own. Smaller communities are treading water or losing ground. It’s a pattern common across small Tennessee towns that lack the institutional anchors (universities, hospitals, regional employment centers) driving growth in larger places.

Every year the U.S. Census Bureau publishes population estimates for incorporated places, cities, towns, and townships. These aren’t actual headcounts. They’re projections built from birth and death records, IRS migration data, and other administrative sources. Think of them as the Census Bureau’s best running tally between the once-a-decade decennial count.

The 2025 estimates for Tri-Cities-area municipalities show a region that is growing, but unevenly. Most of the momentum concentrated in a handful of places.

2025 Population Estimates — Tri-Cities Area Municipalities

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2025 Vintage Population Estimates.

The big picture

Across the combined population grew by roughly 2,400 people to about 218,800. That sounds modest, and it is, but the headline understates what’s happening at the top of the size ladder.

Johnson City is doing the heavy lifting

Johnson City added 1,343 residents in a single year, pushing its population to 74,943. That one city accounts for more than half of all the net growth across all 14 municipalities combined. At 1.8%, its growth rate is the second highest on the list. If that pace holds, Johnson City crosses the 75,000 threshold well before the 2030 census.

Jonesborough is punching well above its weight

The region’s smallest incorporated town on this list with significant growth, Jonesborough added 266 residents. That’s a 3.8% increase. It’s the highest growth rate of any municipality in the report. For context, Jonesborough has fewer than 7,000 people. Growth at that rate in a small place reshapes a community faster than the same number of people added to a city 10 times larger.

Kingsport and Bristol are growing steadily

Kingsport, the region’s second-largest city, added 349 residents (0.6%). Bristol added 283 (about 1%). Both are solid, if unspectacular, gains for established cities their size. Greeneville added 157 (roughly 1%), continuing a pattern of quiet, consistent growth.

Several smaller communities are losing ground

Four municipalities recorded population declines: Rogersville (-43), Mount Carmel (-22), Erwin (-16), and Church Hill (-8). Bulls Gap lost one resident. Surgoinsville was flat..

None of these losses are dramatic in absolute terms, but the pattern is worth watching. These are older, smaller communities can outpace whatever in-migration occurs. When that happens in a small town, even modest losses show up quickly in local budgets, school enrollment, and service demand.

What these numbers don’t tell you

Incorporated city limits are legal boundaries, not economic ones. Johnson City’s growth figures, for example, don’t capture the broader Washington County population that lives just outside city limits but works, shops, and uses services in the city. County-level and metro-level estimates give a more complete picture of regional growth dynamics. These figures are also estimates. They carry a margin of error, and small-place numbers are more volatile than large-city figures.

Hawkins Co. is another example. An earlier report on county-level population estimates showed a 2025 growth estimate of 137 residents for Hawkins. The difference can be attributed to growth outside an incorporated place. The five-year report for Hawkins put its population growth rate second highest in the Tri-Cities,  just behind Washington County.

This earlier big-picture report provides context the 2025 population estimates. https://donfenley.com/2026/03/26/tri-cities-region-tops-607000-extending-five-year-growth-streak/

The bottom line

Methodology

Population figures are from the U.S. Census Bureau 2025 Vintage Population Estimates for incorporated places in Tennessee. Estimates are not survey-based head counts; they are model-based projections incorporating administrative records including birth and death registrations, IRS tax return data, Medicare enrollment data, and federal housing records. Small-area estimates carry higher relative uncertainty than large-city figures. Analysis covers 14 incorporated municipalities in the Tri-Cities bi-state region.

Categories: DEMOGRAPHICS