By DON FENLEY

Consumer concerns about prices and the war in the Middle East haven’t dulled Tri-Cities home sales, yet. Every county in the nine-county region is operating in seller’s market conditions, according to April market reports from the TCI Group and Realtors Property Resource (RPR). TCI’s Annualized Sales Tracker is also showing the market gaining momentum.

Both indicators and the overall market bear close monitoring as geopolitical events and the consumer concerns they create increase.

Median days on market is one of the most reliable real-time gauges of supply-demand balance at the local level. It’s the benchmark for market classification. While some traditional industry metrics set the balanced market threshold at 5–6 months, RPR criteria are calibrated to reflect modern market dynamics. Under RPR standards, 5.5 months of inventory represents the upper limit of a seller’s market.

The RPR classification framework applied here:

0–5.5 months: Seller’s market

5.6–6.5 months: Balanced market

6.6+ months: Buyer’s market

The table below reflects current median days on market by county, drawn from RPR data.

Unicoi County’s nine-day median is a standout. Sullivan Co. (40 days) and Washington Co. TN (32 days) anchors the region’s core urban corridor in moderately tight conditions. At the slower end, Washington Co. VA (64 days), Hawkins Co. (62 days) and Johnson Co. (56 days) reflect markets where buyers have slightly more time, but sellers still control the field.

Time on the market above 60 days does not signal a weakening market in isolation. Instead, it typically reflects a combination of higher median price points, more rural buyer pools, or seasonal listing patterns. All nine counties remain in seller’s market territory under RPR criteria.

A granular look at inventory conditions across five regional markets from the TCI Group reveals a consistent pattern. The regional affordable and move-up segments remain firmly in seller’s territory, while the upper-luxury tier has crossed into buyer’s market conditions across most regions. The table in the companion chart by TCI Group Technology Manager Nina Heffner shows inventory by price tier and region.

Tracker Shows Sales Advancing

The Tri-Cities monthly annualized home sales trend reached 7,120 units in April 2026. That’s the highest reading since mid-2022 and a signal that the regional market’s multi-year recovery is gaining momentum after a prolonged post-peak contraction.

The annualized tracker, which rolls twelve months of closed sales to smooth seasonal variation, peaked at 8,794 units in Sept. 2021 at the height of the pandemic-era demand surge. What followed was one of the steepest declines in the region’s recorded market history. Rising mortgage rates beginning in 2022 compressed buyer purchasing power rapidly, and the annualized pace fell steadily. It reached a post-peak trough of 6,596 units in June 2025, a contraction of roughly 25% from the 2021 peak.

To put the current trajectory in historical context: the 7,120-unit April 2026 reading exceeds any monthly recording between Oct. 2023 and Dec. 2025 and has returned the market to volume levels not consistently seen since the second half of 2022. However, the region remains approximately 19% below the Sept. 2021 peak and roughly 10% below the pre-pandemic baseline of late 2019.

The upward trajectory in early 2026 suggests the region has moved past the rate-shock adjustment phase that defined 2022 through 2024. Buyers appear to be re-entering the market at higher mortgage rates as a new normal. It’s a pattern consistent with national data showing gradual demand stabilization. Whether the current pace is sustained will depend in part on whether mortgage rates ease further, whether new inventory enters the market at affordable price points, and whether the regional labor market holds its recent gains.

This report is a combination of human and AI research and analysis.

Categories: REAL ESTATE