By DON FENLEY

The Tri-Cities population reached an estimated 607,381 residents as of July 1, 2025, according to newly released population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. It’s the highest recorded population in the nine-county region and a net increase of 21,124 people since the 2020 census.

The estimates cover seven Tennessee counties (Carter, Greene, Hawkins, Johnson, Sullivan, Unicoi, and Washington) along with Scott County and Washington County in Virginia. The region added 3,014 residents in the most recent 12-month period, a +0.5% annual gain.

Population gains were heavily concentrated on the Tennessee side of the region. Six of the seven Tennessee counties recorded net population growth since 2020, with Unicoi County the lone exception, posting a modest net loss of 17 residents over the period. Both Virginia counties also posted five-year declines.

Washington Co. TN Tops Region in Absolute and Percentage Gain

Washington County, TN posted the region’s highest five-year growth rate at +6.0%, adding 7,988 residents to reach 141,199 — making it the top performer in both absolute and percentage terms. Home to Johnson City and anchored by East Tennessee State University and the Mountain Home VA Medical Center, Washington TN’s growth was front-loaded: its largest annual increase of 2,812 came in the 2021-22 period, and while annual gains have moderated since, the county has posted positive growth in every year of the period.

Sullivan County, the region’s most populous jurisdiction, ranked second in absolute gain, adding 5,521 residents over five years to reach 163,759. Sullivan’s year-over-year growth has been remarkably consistent, adding residents in each of the five annual periods. Its largest single-year gain of 1,649 came in the 2021-22 period, and the most recent 2024-25 increase of 1,050 was the strongest annual gain among all nine counties in that period.

Greene County added 3,492 residents for a 2025 estimate of 73,831, a +5.0% gain. Greene posted its peak annual increase of 1,232 in the 2022-23 period and has recorded consistent year-over-year gains throughout, adding 486 residents in the most recent year.

Hawkins County ranked second in five-year percentage growth at +5.0%, adding 2,844 residents to reach 59,559. Hawkins has grown in every annual period without interruption, with year-over-year gains peaking in 2022-23 — when it added 668 residents — before settling into a more moderate pace. The county added 137 residents in the most recent year.

Carter County grew +1.7% over the five-year period, adding 970 residents for a 2025 population of 57,361. Carter’s trajectory includes one notable wrinkle: after posting gains in each of the prior three years, the county recorded a slight decline of 7 residents in the 2024-25 period — the only Tennessee county to post a year-over-year loss in the most recent estimates.

Johnson County, one of the region’s smallest jurisdictions, added a net 733 residents over five years for a +4.1% gain, though its year-over-year record is mixed. The county dipped by 37 residents in 2021-22 before recovering and has grown in each of the three most recent annual periods.

Virginia counties post declines

Both Virginia counties in the region recorded population losses over the five-year period, with their year-over-year trends offering little indication of reversal. Washington County, VA fell from 53,910 in 2020 to 53,898, a net loss of 12 residents. The county declined in four of the five annual periods, with only a modest gain of 135 in 2022-23 interrupting an otherwise consistent downward trend. The most recent year brought a loss of 216 residents.

Scott County, VA recorded the region’s most persistent contraction, declining in four of the five annual periods for a net loss of 395 residents since 2020. A brief uptick of 17 residents in 2021-22 was the only positive year-over-year reading in the dataset for Scott County; the subsequent three years all posted losses, including a decline of 188 in the most recent period.

Unicoi County, TN, the region’s smallest jurisdiction, also posted a net five-year decline despite showing signs of partial recovery. Unicoi lost residents in each of the first two annual periods, bottoming out in 2021-22 before rebounding with gains in 2022-23 and 2023-24. However, the county slipped again in 2024-25, losing 69 residents and ending the five-year period 17 below its 2020 baseline.

Population Data By County 2020-2025

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population and Housing Unit Estimates Program. Figures represent July 1 estimates. Year-over-year columns show net change for each 12-month period. Counties sorted by five-year percentage change, highest to lowest. Green indicates gain; red indicates loss.

The region’s annual growth pattern reveals a clear arc across the five-year period. The 2020-21 interval was the weakest, with the regional total edging up by only 1,285 residents — a period during which elevated mortality, deferred migration, and pandemic-related disruption suppressed population movement nationally. Three counties — Carter, Scott VA, and Washington VA — actually posted declines in that first year.

Growth accelerated sharply in 2021-22, the strongest single year in the dataset. The region added 6,344 residents in that 12-month period, with Washington TN posting its peak annual gain and Hawkins sustaining its upward momentum. The pattern held through 2022-23, which produced the second-largest annual gain at the regional level at 6,228 residents.

Annual growth moderated in 2023-24 and again in 2024-25, though both years remained solidly positive at the regional level with gains of 4,253 and 3,014 residents, respectively. The most recent year’s total of 3,014 was driven primarily by Sullivan County, which posted its strongest annual increase of the entire period in 2024-25.

The year-over-year data also highlight diverging momentum within the region. Hawkins County has grown in every annual period without exception. Carter County, by contrast, reversed course in 2024-25 after three consecutive years of growth. The Virginia counties show no signs of trend reversal in the annual data, with Scott County declining in four of five years and Washington VA in four of five as well.

The divergence between Tennessee and Virginia counties within the region reflects broader state-level demographic trends. Tennessee has been among the fastest-growing states in the South over the post-pandemic period, driven by in-migration from higher-cost metros. Virginia’s southwestern counties, by contrast, have faced persistent population loss linked to the long-term decline of coal and tobacco economies and limited economic diversification.

The seven Tennessee counties in the Tri-Cities region posted a net combined gain of 21,531 residents since 2020, with six of the seven growing and Unicoi County recording a marginal loss. The two Virginia counties together lost 407 residents over the same period.

The next major demographic benchmark for the region will be the 2030 decennial census, which will reset baseline estimates and determine apportionment for congressional and state legislative districts in both Tennessee and Virginia through 2040.

Data: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program, July 1, 2025. This report is a combination of AI and human analysis.

Categories: TRENDS