By DON FENLEY

Census-based data for early 2026 confirms that the Tri-Cities region has entered a migration-dependent demographic cycle. With deaths consistently outpacing births across the region’s major hubs, the area must maintain a specific break-even migration pace simply to prevent total population contraction.

According to the latest components of change analysis, the region currently faces a combined natural decrease of approximately 3,100 individuals per year. To counter this, local metros must attract roughly 260 new residents every month. Current performance indicates that both the Kingsport-Bristol and Johnson City MSAs are currently exceeding these requirements. The increase is driven largely by a generational rebalancing of out-of-state arrivals.

New data will be released mid-year.

METRO FOCUS: KINGSPORT-BRISTOL (TN-VA)

Analysis of the Kingsport-Bristol MSA that used Move to Kingsport tracking and local utility metrics shows a consistent and sustainable relocation pattern.

• The Daily Pace: In late 2025, Kingsport averaged 2.4 new families per workday. Over the 12-month period ending November 2025, the city attracted 591 new families from 45 different states.
• The Regional Hub: While the MSA attracts national attention, roughly two-thirds of arrivals originate from within a 300-mile radius, including Nashville, Charlotte, and Atlanta.
• The Virginia Spillover: Data shows a critical spillover effect into Washington Co. and Scott Co., VA. These rural-fringe areas, which have historically faced steep declines, are seeing a stabilization in their tax base as they capture roughly 12–15 new residents per month from the broader metro influx.

METRO FOCUS: JOHNSON CITY (TN)

Data from the Johnson City Chamber of Commerce and Core Data reveals a higher-velocity, younger migration profile for the Washington-Unicoi-Carter county cluster. A 2025 update is expected in a few weeks.

• Household Formation: Johnson City added approximately 335 new households in 2024, while rural Washington County added 305. This equates to roughly 53 households per month for the metro core.
• Top Donor States: Johnson City’s migration is heavily fueled by the Southern Corridor, with Florida and North Carolina serving as the top two points of origin.
• Generational Rebalancing: A significant 41.5% of those forming new households in Johnson City are between the ages of 25 and 44. This influx of Gen Z and Millennials is providing a vital labor force backfill for a region where the native median age remains in the mid-40s.

While the natural population of the Tri-Cities continues to contract, the region’s appeal as a sustainable growth destination has prevented the decline seen in other Appalachian corridors. Johnson City remains the region’s primary growth magnet, while Kingsport-Bristol has successfully leveraged regional recruitment to stabilize its multi-state footprint.

Greeneville continues to function as the region’s stability anchor, attracting just enough newcomers to remain in the “growth” column for 2026.

Categories: DEMOGRAPHICS