By DON FENLEY

Flood damage from Hurricane Helene, development pressures from growing metro areas, a brutal farm economy and an aging demographic have created a perfect storm that’s battering Tri-Cities farms. Some have sold. More are headed in that direction.

What’s happening is a structural dismantling of the region’s agricultural backbone. For some farmers, it’s a crisis that isn’t entirely about weather. It’s about survival. “For generations, farm families have farmed for a very low returns because they love their way of life. With the increasing financial constraints on the farmer that way of life is becoming less sustainable,” according to Chris Ramsey, vice president at TCI Group. TCI Group is the largest commercial real estate organization in the Tri-Cities. Ramsey was also the University of Tennessee Agriculture Extension Agent for Sullivan County until his retirement from that position.

There’s also a demographic reality at play. Farmers tend to be older than other business owners. According to government data, 40% of all farmlands are owned by farmers over 65. The local demographic runs older than the U.S. average, and some locals face retirement whether they want to or have to.

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And while the Tri-Cities situation isn’t dominated by the row crop conditions extensively reported by the media, local farmers have issues that are just as pressing.

The pressure to sell is coming from three sides. The first is a push from financial losses and flood damage. The second is the economic squeeze. The third is a pull from high land values.

The Push

• The Impact of Hurricane Helene is the most immediate and unique factor for counties like Unicoi, Greene, Washington, and Carter.

• • Physical Destruction: The flooding didn’t just damage crops; in many river bottom areas, it washed away the topsoil or covered fields in sand and debris. Farmers lost miles of fencing, barns, and equipment.
  • Long-Term Soil Damage: University of Tennessee researchers have noted that the post-flood sediment is sandy and nutrient-deficient (specifically lacking manganese), meaning land may not be productive for years without expensive remediation. For a farmer in Carter or Greene County facing a $100,000 bill just to make the dirt productive again, the math simply doesn’t add up.

• Then there is the fence factor. It sounds trivial until you see the bill. In the cattle-heavy counties of Hawkins and Scott, Va., miles of perimeter fencing have been washed away. With 2025 inflation keeping steel and wood prices near record highs, the cost to re-fence a 100-acre pasture often exceeds the profit the cattle inside it would generate for a decade. Faced with this, many older cattlemen are choosing to sell their herds rather than rebuild the fence.

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The Squeeze

• Even without the hurricane, 2024 was financially brutal, and the bills have come due.

• • Input Costs: The cost of everything needed to farm – diesel, fertilizer, seed, and interest rates on loans – remains near record highs due to inflation.
  • Low Commodity Prices: At the same time, the market prices for key commodities have dropped significantly.
  • The result: University of Tennessee agricultural economists have projected that many row crops will show a net loss per acre for the 2025 outlook. Put simply, it currently costs more to grow the crop than the farmer can sell it for.

• Perhaps the most alarming data comes from just across the state line. Washington County, Va., has the highest number of for-sale listings in the area. This represents a massive, synchronized exit from the beef cattle sector. Southwest Virginia’s terrain is harder to farm than the Tennessee valleys, and its aging operator base (average age hovering near 60) is deciding en masse that they do not have the energy or the capital to fight another season. Scott County, Va., is seeing a similar, though smaller number of for-sale listings, so some are pivoting from working cattle operations to recreational hunting land.

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 The Pull

• Ironically, while the business of farming is struggling the land itself is more valuable than ever. When located next to a road, some land is more valuable for development that it will ever be for farming.
• High Real Estate Values: Tennessee farmland values have risen significantly (up 7-12% in recent years depending on the area).
• Development Pressure: The Tri-Cities is a hotspot for retirees and people moving from high-cost states. Developers are actively seeking flat, cleared land for housing subdivisions.
• The “Exit Strategy”: For an older farmer facing hundreds of thousands of dollars in flood repairs, and the economic squeeze, an offer from a developer can look less like “selling out” and more like a financial lifeboat to save their personal retirement.
• Some farms have also been handed down to a generation of younger people who are more interested in the profits from selling than tilling the land or tending livestock.

The middle class of farming – the 200-acre family operation – is vanishing. The floodwaters may be long gone, but they washed away something permanent.

Categories: TRENDS