By DON FENLEY

If you look at the national headlines, the home loan origination story is one of stagnation. According to a Q3 report just released by ATTOM, the U.S. mortgage market is “treading water,” with total activity down 1.6% from the previous quarter.

But real estate is local, and the data for the Tri-Cities tells a more dynamic story.

While the rest of the country sees a “modest lift” in refinancing, the Johnson City and Kingsport-Bristol metro areas are in the midst of a refinancing boom and outperforming national growth rates.

Here is the breakdown of how the Tri-Cities compares to the national landscape.

Nationally, high interest rates and affordability constraints have kept a lid on activity. ATTOM CEO Rob Barber notes that the U.S. market is seeing a mere 1.9% increase in total activity year-over-year.

The Tri-Cities, however, is heating up. When isolating core mortgage activity – purchase plus refinance – the local markets are posting growth rates three times higher than the national average.

•  National Year-Over-Year Growth: +1.9%
•  Kingsport-Bristol Growth: +5.7%
•  Johnson City Growth: +6.2%

The Purchase Slump

On the home buying front, the Tri-Cities is perfectly aligned with national trends. ATTOM reports that purchase loans declined both quarterly and annually across the U.S. due to affordability constraints.

Locally, the same cooling effect is at play.

• Johnson City: Purchase loans down 3.2% compared to last year.
• Kingsport-Bristol: Purchase loans down 3.5% compared to last year.

Buyers in NE TN and SW VA are feeling the same pinch as buyers in Phoenix or Boston. Inventory and rates remain hurdles that are tempering sales volume.

The Refi Rocket

This is the headline story. ATTOM describes the national refinance market as having “edged higher” with a “modest lift.”

In the Tri-Cities, it wasn’t a “modest lift.” It was a launch. Homeowners here are aggressively restructuring their debt, likely taking advantage of equity gains or rate nuances that the national data flattens out.

Year-Over-Year Refinance Growth:

• National: +2% from Q2 and up 12% from last year
•  Kingsport-Bristol: +8.3% from Q2 and up +16.1% from last year
•  Johnson City: + 11.9% from  Q2 and +17.8% last year

While the average American homeowner is waiting on the sidelines, Tri-Cities homeowners are active. They’re locking in new rates and restructuring loans at a double-digit growth pace compared to Q3 2024.

ATTOM suggests the national market is failing to “turn a corner.” However, the Tri-Cities data suggests it has already been turned.

While the local purchase market remains soft – mirroring the U.S. – the sheer volume of refinancing activity has pushed the regional total loan originations into healthy positive territory. If rates soften further heading into the winter months, the Tri-Cities is positioned to maintain this momentum, driven by existing homeowners leveraging their equity rather than new buyers entering the market.

Categories: REAL ESTATE