By DON FENLEY

The Tri-Cities housing market has quietly shifted into a new phase. The August through November annualized sales pace is the strongest in a year and a clear signal that the correction phase is behind us, according to the TCI Annualized Home Sales Tracker.

Annualized sales have risen four straight months. Mid-tier price brackets continue to anchor demand. Inventory remains tight enough to support further stabilization.

Annualized sales peaked in June 2024 then drifted lower for more than a year as the post-pandemic boom gave way to normalization. The market found its footing in July 2025. Since then, a modest, but unmistakable increase has been under way.

The recovery isn’t being driven by a surge in listings or renewed bidding wars. It’s being driven by stabilized pricing, better alignment between sellers and buyers, and a return of households that had been waiting out rate volatility. What’s emerging is a healthier, fundamentals-based market that rewards well-priced inventory without creating runaway conditions.

Outlook: Early 2026

• Expect annualized sales to hover in the 6,750-6,850 range, barring major shocks.
• Inventory will remain too tight to allow a buyer’s market, but too flexible to revive the frenzy of 2021–2023.
• Price stability should continue, especially in the mid-tiers.
• Local job growth, migration, and household formation remain the strongest demand drivers.

What’s Driving the Rebound?

Mid-Tier Price Brackets Are Doing the Heavy Lifting

Across the Bristol, Greeneville, Johnson City, and Kingsport regions, the core of the market remains remarkably consistent:

• $200K–$299K: 2,143 sales
• $300K–$399K: 1,527 sales

Combined, these two brackets account for more than half of the region’s 12-month sales total. These homes serve new households, move-up buyers, and new resident.

Inventory Is Firmer, but Not Excessive

Mid-November months-of-inventory across the mid-tiers sits in the 4.5-4.8 months band. That’s near balance but still slightly seller-leaning.

Entry-level inventory is tighter, while upper-end supply widens substantially to the 8-16 months range reflecting slower but steady luxury demand.

The Market Is Not Over-Correcting

Even at the slowest point, annualized sales never dipped into recession-like territory. That stability is now translating into a controlled, sustainable recovery.

Regional Dynamics

• Johnson City Region
  Johnson City remains the market’s demand engine with 2,769 annualized sales, especially strong in the $200K–$399K bands. Inventory here is the tightest in the Tri-Cities mid-market. The 3.9-4.3 months of inventory explains its outsized influence.
• Johnson City is region’s driving force. Strong in-migration, employment growth, and new-building activity underpin the swiftest recovery of any county cluster.

• Kingsport Region
  The Kingport region delivered 1,868 sales, with a healthy spread across the $100K-$399K brackets. Inventory conditions (2.3-5.4 months of inventtory) show a market normalizing but still capable of quick absorption when listings are priced realistically.
• The Kingsport region is a model normalization pattern: no extremes, steady demand, and smooth absorption. Kingsport helped pull regional totals upward through fall.

• Bristol TN/VA Region
  The Twin Cities logged 1,217 sales, centered in the mid-tier brackets. Entry-level inventory is tight with 2.7 months of inventory, and the upper tier shows deep but stable supply.
• The Twin Cities is a steady, grounded market where price discipline and affordability continue to support demand. Bristol participated early in the late-2025 upswing.

Greeneville Region
Greeneville continues to be one of the region’s most stable submarkets. Mid-tier inventory sits in the 5-5.5 months of inventory range. It’s nearing balance and offering a clear, predictable read on conditions.

Greene County remains one of the region’s most predictable performers, neither boom-prone nor bust-prone. It absorbed the 2025 slowdown smoothly and is now contributing to the rebound.

Tri-Cities Region: Consolidated Conditions

The region produced 6,806 annualized sales in November. It illustrates a market that is stabilizing from within rather than relying on external catalysts.

Core price bands:

• $200K–$299K: 2,143 sales
• $300K–$399K: 1,527 sales
  These two price bands account for over 54% of all regional activity.

Inventory across core bands:

• 4.5-4.8 months of inventory. That’s  close to balance, leaning modestly toward sellers

High-end supply:

• 8-16 months of inventory. Demand remains stable rather than distressed

Bottom Line:
The combined TCI annualized tracker data confirm the transition. The market has moved beyond its mid-2025 low and into a phase of controlled, sustainable improvement.

Look for this to stimulate commercial real estate activity that has been on a wait-and-see-what-the-economy does.

Categories: REAL ESTATE