Executive Summary

The second quarter of 2025 brought mixed lending results across the Tri-Cities. Johnson City slipped slightly on total loan volume, while Kingsport–Bristol held steady overall despite sharp shifts in loan composition. Purchases pulled back across both metros, but gains in refinancing and HELOC activity offered a counterbalance.

These trends reflect the continued influence of mortgage rates, buyer affordability constraints, and homeowner reluctance to refinance unless significant savings are in play.

Mortgage activity across the nation and the Tri-Cities perked up a bit in the second quarter, “but it’s not a clear signal that the market has turned a corner,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM said in the firm’s Q2 Residential Property Mortgage Origination Report. “The increase in purchase and refinance activity reflects some buyer and homeowner response to marginal rate improvements, but underlying affordability and economic uncertainty continue to hold the market in check. This was a typical spring bounce, not yet a breakout.”

The Q2 real estate loan activity compared to the pre-pandemic Q2 activity illustrates how much local real estate loan markets have moved.

• Total Johnson City metro loans are 72% higher than the pre-pandemic level and Kingsport-Bristol loans are 154% higher.
• Johnson City metro home purchase loans are 55% higher while they’re up 43% in Kingsport-Bristol.
• Johnson City metro refi loans are 89% higher and they’re 37% higher in Kingsport-Bristol.
• Johnson City metro HELOCs at 86% higher than their pre-pandemic level while the Kingsport-Bristol increase is 0.04%.

Here’s a deeper look at the Q2 local loan originations by metro area with a brief bottom line analysis:

Johnson City MSA

• Total Loans: 1,190 (-2.8% YoY)
• Purchase Loans: 499 (-11.2% YoY)
• Refinance Loans: 465 (+0.6% YoY)
• HELOCs: 226 (+13.0% YoY)

Bottom line: Johnson City lending slowed slightly year-over-year, with purchases softening the most. Still, the metro saw modest growth in both refinances and HELOCs, suggesting some homeowners are testing the waters to improve terms or tap equity despite higher borrowing costs.

Kingsport–Bristol MSA

• Total Loans: 1,813 (+0.1% YoY)
• Purchase Loans: 808 (-18.8% YoY)
• Refinance Loans: 736 (+3.2% YoY)
• HELOCs: 269 (+25.7% YoY)

Bottom line: Kingsport–Bristol’s loan market was flat overall, but the mix shifted. Purchases fell sharply, offset by stronger refinance and equity lending. Homeowners here appear more willing to restructure debt or access equity than their Johnson City counterparts.

Regional Takeaways

• Purchase loans are under pressure, down double-digits in both metros.
• Refinancing shows cautious growth, indicating homeowners are seizing opportunities when rates dip.
• HELOCs are accelerating, especially in Kingsport–Bristol, reflecting increased comfort with leveraging equity.
• Totals diverged: Johnson City slipped modestly, while Kingsport–Bristol held steady.

Categories: REAL ESTATE