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The Tri-Cities region began this year with 2,470 real estate loans, according to ATTOM’s Residential Property Mortgage Origination report. It was the third consecutive quarterly decline but a 5.9% increase from last year. Nationally real estate loans were up 14% from last year.

This local data reflects continued market recalibration after mid-2024’s peak activity, likely influenced by macroeconomic uncertainty and rate-driven borrower caution.

“The red-hot housing market we’ve seen over the last few years meant that most home loans were going toward new purchases, but that appears to be changing,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “Rather than borrowing money to buy a new property, the data shows homeowners are increasingly looking to restructure their existing mortgages or borrow equity from their homes to cover other expenses. If the current trend continues, mortgage refinancing deals will soon make up the biggest share of the home loan market,” he added.

An analysis for the report’s data shows both Tri-Cities metro areas showed growth in refinance and HELOC lending. Purchase loans have cooled from mid-2024 levels, they remain relatively stable year-over-year. This balance between home buying and equity-based borrowing suggests a maturing loan market where homeowners are actively managing housing wealth amid a cautious purchase climate.

The local outlook is for a lending environment that is expected to remain steady but subdued through mid-2025. If mortgage rates decline in the latter half of the year, purchase activity may rebound—especially in Johnson City, which has shown resilience in borrower demand. Refinance and HELOC activity could remain elevated if rate trends and equity levels support homeowner interest.

Overall, the region’s borrower base appears well-positioned for long-term stability. Year-over-year growth in total loans, refinances, and HELOCs signals enduring strength even as purchase activity moderates. Expect summer lending trends to be pivotal in determining the trajectory for year-end recovery.

Market by MSA

Johnson City
Q1 2025 began with 1,001 loans in Johnson City, slightly up from 994 in Q4 2024, but well below mid-2024 highs. Year-over-year growth was 5.8%, a steady increase from the 946 loans in Q1 2024. While the quarter reflects some softening, the annual increase suggests fundamental borrower strength.

Kingsport-Bristol
Kingsport-Bristol recorded 1,469 loans in Q1 2025—a decline from 1,726 in Q4 2024, but a 6.0% increase over the 1,386 loans seen in Q1 2024. Despite the quarterly dip, the year-over-year growth highlights an expanding borrower base in the MSA.

Loan Type Analysis

Purchase Loans
Regional purchase loans totaled 1,018 in Q1 2025, down from 1,115 in Q4 2024 and significantly below the 1,435 peak in Q2 2024. Compared to Q1 2024’s 1,026, this marks a 0.8% annual decrease, indicating slight softness in home buying demand.

• Johnson City held flat year-over-year at 424 loans, while
• Kingsport-Bristol posted a 0.5% increase to 594 loans.

The slowdown aligns with seasonal factors and elevated borrowing costs, but modest annual changes suggest underlying purchase demand remains intact.

Refinance Loans
Refinancing totaled 1,048 loans region-wide in Q1 2025, a 9.6% increase over 956 in Q1 2024, though down from the Q4 2024 total of 1,217.

• Johnson City had 389 refinance loans, up from 353 the year prior.
• Kingsport-Bristol increased from 603 to 659, a 9.3% rise.

These gains reflect homeowners capitalizing on rate adjustments or tapping equity, and refinancing continues to be a strong contributor to overall loan volume.

HELOCs (Home Equity Lines of Credit)
HELOC originations reached 404 in Q1 2025, up 15.4% from 350 in Q1 2024, and also increased quarter-over-quarter from 388 in Q4 2024.

• Johnson City’s HELOCs rose from 158 to 188 (a 19% gain),
• Kingsport-Bristol’s grew from 192 to 216 (12.5% growth).

Rising property values and borrowers’ comfort with secured revolving credit lines are likely drivers of this growth. HELOCs remain the fastest-growing loan segment year-over-year.

Categories: REAL ESTATE, TRENDS