By DON FENLEY

November home sales are back on track for their pre-pandemic level retreat after a slight pickup in October.

The TCI Group’s Annualized Home Sale Tracker has November’s sales at their lowest mark so far this year. The movement is equal parts the typical seasonal activity and the slowly evolving inventory that is beginning to be in better shape to launch the early 2025 season.

At mid-month, the Tri-Cities region has the best overall inventory stock that it has had since 2020. And the number of submarkets with balanced market conditions as measured by months of inventory is on the rise. The Twin Cities, for example, has 7.7months of inventory of listings in the $300K to $399,999K sweet spot.

Inventory is a big part of the market picture that has been missing for a couple of years. It’s been great news from sellers and has helped build them a record high equity level for mortgaged properties and double-digit appreciation for the 50% of local properties that are mortgage free.

The same can’t be said for buyers – especially first-time buyers. But a balanced market will help change that. A balanced market is typically measured by six months of more inventory.

Aside from inventory, the most watched market mover is mortgage rates. The current outlook is for them to average six to 6.5%. That’s a full point of what many owners have said is the rate that gets them to pull the trigger and shake free from the low rates that have kept much of the market in a deep freeze.

Market watchers are also keeping one eye fixed on the new administration for signals of what it will do to help move the market toward more affordable housing. It was a topic during the campaign, but it’s early and so far, the Trump administration hasn’t come forth with anything except the campaign rhetoric to make it better.

National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun’s 2025 forecast is for a 9% year-over-year increase in existing home sales and an increase of 11% in the new home market.

The Trinities’ market is currently moving toward a 4% year-over-year price increase and a sales increase that will hover at or slightly above where it was in 2023.

Some of the market shifts NAR expects for the coming year include:

• More cash sales, as owners, put all of that equity they have built up to use.
• Older first-time buyers.
• More multi-generational purchases.

Single women will continue to outpace single men buyers.

Categories: REAL ESTATE