CLICK ON CHART FOR LARGER VERSION

By DON FENLEY

There’s an upside to a home sales swoon last month. As sales continue a slow retreat to a pre-pandemic level, it’s allowing a breather for inventory.

Demand hasn’t gone away but the bulk of it is stuck in the pending category and waiting for an undefined inflection point. The point could be a hefty decrease in mortgage rates, which is unlikely. There is also something to be said about sellers getting more competitive on prices.

Data from the Northeast Tennessee Association of Realtors (NETAR) and Realtors Property Resource (RPR) show that’s already happening. The number of price reductions is up, so are concessions, but neither has been enough to put much downward pressure prices. That’s especially true in the move-up and luxury homes markets. While the move-up and affordable market don’t dominate local sales, they have pushed average and median home prices higher and help keep it there.

The affordable market is as competitive as ever. And there have been a lot of sales during the 12 months ending in mid-July. According to the TCI Group’s Home Sales Tracker, 54% of all home sales have been in the $100,000 to $300,00 price range. Add the $300K-to-$399,999 price range and sales jump to 75% of everything sold during the last 12 months.

Pursue the latest months of inventory chart to get a feel of where the supply situation has become. Here’s a capsule submarket view that combines human and artificial intelligence analysis that sweeps in complimenting and contradicting data into the market equation.

BRISTOL TN/VA

The inventory shift on the TN side of the state line moves it toward a more buyer-friendly market that gives buyers more bargaining power and possibly lower prices. It’s a balancing market where the median time on market before a home sales is 13 days.

Bristol VA’s housing supply points to a market that favors sellers, but all the data doesn’t line up for them. Homes are selling quickly – the median time on market is 12 days. It’s a market with limited inventory, high demand and competitive pricing.

GREENEVILLE

The most recent data points to a healthy level of activity. There’s a supply-demand balance with an annualized change in inventory that is more buyer-friendly. The median time on market is 29 days which shows there’s still strong demand. Sellers are getting strong offers close to their asking price while buyers can still find homes relatively quickly.

KINGSPORT

The annualized inventory trend is one of a market moving toward more balance. Homes are sold quickly. The median time on market is 11 days. Data suggests buyers should be prepared to act quickly with a competitive offer to get a home in the Kingsport market.

JOHNSON CITY

This is the region’s highest volume market and remains the strongest regional seller’s market. The annualized inventory trend points to a significant increase in inventory compared to last year, which push sales down. Homes are selling quickly – the median time on market is 11 days. A positive for sellers is homes are selling for 100% of their asking price.

Data sources: NETAR, RPR

Categories: REAL ESTATE