BY DON FENLEY

There was a subtle, but noteworthy, change in the Census Bureau’s latest local population estimates. It wasn’t so much about the Tri-Cities region’s growth rate. As expected, nine of the region’s primary counties saw a population increase. Five counties – all in SW VA – lost population. A listing of county gains and losses can be found at https://donfenley.com/2024/03/16/tri-cities-area-census-population-estimates/ and https://donfenley.com/2024/03/15/region-sees-more-population-gain-where-its-happening/

The change came in what’s called the components of population change. But it wasn’t about net migration, which drives the region’s population. The number of newcomers is the population driver because there’re more local deaths than births. There’s also a bunch of people – mostly college graduates – who leave the region every year. They leave because of lack of jobs in the professions they trained for in college.

It’s been that way for quite a while, but it’s one of those things that produces notable change so slowly it got little attention until a couple years ago.

So, what was the noteworthy change?

Region wide, there was a tiny increase in the number of births, and the death rate decreased in all but one of the region’s core jurisdictions. Just to be clear, the total number of deaths is still increasing, but at a slower rate.

Before anyone gets too excited, the increase in births was small – very small.

During 2023, there were 5,508 births, up one from the previous year. But it was the second straight year the number increased. During 2022, there were 150 more births than the previous year. And according to the Census, births increased in 19 sates – mostly in the South.

Births typically increase when there’s optimism about the economy, which fits with the local numbers. Births peaked at 5,923 in 2013. Since then, the trend receded – until 2023. Locals can – and do – gripe about higher home prices, much higher rents, and the cost of food and services, but their spending continues at a good clip. In fact, local consumer spending has increasingly propped up an increased part of the local economy.

These small increases in the birth rate are not enough to be a population driver because their first cousin in the natural population gains formula – the death rate – is still higher. But there’s also a change in it. The biggest birth increase was in Greene Co., up six from the previous year.

While there were 266 more deaths region wide in the last count, but it was a decrease from the previous year.

Just like the fertility rate driver, the reasons for fewer deaths are varied. A big reason is we’re past the big part of the Covid-19 deaths. But according to the Bureau of Economic Research, fewer deaths are increasingly more about medical care, including high-tech medical treatment, and not to social or economic improvements.

Sullivan Co. had the biggest decease in the number of deaths, down 394 from the previous year.

Categories: DEMOGRAPHICS