By DON FENLEY

TRI-CITIES, Tenn. – Continued population growth is what was expected and delivered by the Census population projection this week.

All eight regional counties gained population to 533,399 from 515,137 in 2022. That’s a gain of 18,264.

Where that gain settled is the most sought-after number among many civic and business leaders.

As expected, Washington Co. is the leader with a population gain of 2,273.

Here’ what the rest of the gains happened:

• Greene, up 1,285
• Sullivan, up 1,273
• Hawkins, up 697
• Carter, up 537
• Johnson, up 329
• Unicoi, up 65
• Hancock, up 110

The first cousin to population gain is the year-over-year growth rates. They are:

Johnson – 1.82%

Greene – 1.8%

Washington – 1.67%

Hancock – 1.65%

Hawkins – 1.2%

Carter – 0.95%

Unicoi – 0.94%

Sullivan – 0.79%

Jeff Fleming, retired Kingsport City Manager now heads up Move To Kingsport, is perhaps the chief proponent of focusing a long view of the data. There’s a good reason for that. It adds important context. It’s a lot like trying to figure out what the labor market is doing. You have put the monthly unemployment rate with the payroll data for a better understanding.

He points out that a growth rate of 5% to 10% is typically considered “healthy, desirable and sustainable.” It’s a pragmatic way to put population growth, labor market performance and the housing market in context. From that perspective, the region has five counties that are stressed to keep up with the year-over-year growth rates if they continue.

Continuing is the key.

The migration rate from the larges metro areas is declining. There’s also some slowing in area submarket hot sports like Knoxville and Asheville. The Tri-Cities region is catching some of the slowing growth. At the same time, the primary out-of-state contributions to the local new residents’ patterns remains to be Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia. The dominant state contributor is Tennessee. So, while the national migration is slowing, the local migration rate is seeing some slowing, but – like other attractive rural metro markets – is outperforming the national trend.

All local increases. Here’s last year’s numbers:

Washington Co. – 2,273

Greene C. – 1,285

Sullivan Co. – 1,272

Hawkins Co. – 697

Carter Co. – 537

Johnson Co. – 329

Unicoi – 165

Hancock – 110

Data source: Tennessee State Data Center, U.S. Census Bureau

Categories: DEMOGRAPHICS