By DON FENLEY

It’s accepted knowledge that the Tri-Cities region is a good place to live and invest in a home. Equally important, but with less media hoopla, is how little risk the region has for a market turndown.

ATTOM’s quarterly Special Housing Impact Reports may not be as sexy to the media – or public – as the Wall Street Journal-Realtor.com Emerging Markets Index, but it’s as, or maybe more, important. While the Emerging Markets Index is intended to help home buyers decide where to invest in housing, the Impact Reports identify the counties with the least downturn risk.

Sullivan and Washington have very high ratings. That means they are among the least likely markets in the nation exposed to market woes. Sullivan also ranks fourth among counties with the least risk in Tennessee. Washington county is ninth in the 13 state counties in the report.

Coupled with recognition as a good place to live and invest in property, being among the counties least exposed to market risks both gratifying and reassuring.

Sullivan Co. ranked 513 out of 580 counties in the fourth-quarter of 2023 analysis. Washington Co. has a 413 ranking. Those rating ranges have become a staple in the impact reports.

The U.S. fourth-quarter pattern shows California, New Jersey, and Illinois had 34 of the 50 counties vulnerable to potential drop-offs. “As with earlier periods over the past few years, those concentrations dwarfed other part of the county, with the latest coming at a time of significant market uncertainty connected to increasingly unaffordable home ownership costs and relatively high home-mortgage interest rates,” according to the report.

At the other end of the risk spectrum, the Midwest, and South again had the most markets considered least likely to decline, including nine in Wisconsin and five in Kansas.

“Fault lines running through the foundation of the U.S. housing market continue to appear in different parts of the country, with some areas remaining more or less vulnerable than others,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “As always, this is not a warning sign for homeowners to run out and sell, or rush to buy, in any specific market. The housing market remains strong throughout most of the country despite some recent small downturns. Rather, this report again spotlights areas that appear more or less exposed to a market fall, should that start to happen, based on key measures.”

Counties were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances that exceeded estimated property values, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes and local unemployment rates. The conclusions were drawn from an analysis of the most recent home affordability, home equity, and foreclosure reports prepared by ATTOM. Rankings were based on a combination of those four categories in 580 counties around the United States with sufficient data to analyze.

Aside from the risk analysis, data collected for the analysis also sheds some context on the local counties’ relationship in the state housing market. For instance.

• Sullivan Co. is the most affordable market in the state.
• Sullivan also has the third lowest percentage of underwater mortgaged properties.
• Washington Co. had the second fewest number of properties with foreclosure filings in the state.

Categories: REAL ESTATE