By DON FENLEY

TRI-CITIES, Tenn. – The Johnson City metro area dropped to 9^th place on the Wall Street Journal – Realtor.com Winter Emerging Housing list released this week. The three-county area (Carter, Washington, and Unicoi) has been in the index’s top 10 seven times and in the top 20 three times.

The four-county Kingsport-Bristol metro area (Hawkins and Sullivan counties in NE TN and Scott and Washington counties in SW VA) is ranked 14 out of the 300 metro areas analyzed for the current index intended “to help home buyers decide on the best place to make housing investments” and is “expected to provide a strong return on investments and are a nice lace to live.”

While Kingsport-Bristol has not seen the high ranking given to the Johnson City metro area, it has enjoyed numerous listings in the top 30.

The Index is one of the national items that vaulted the Tri-Cities region into national prominence and helped increase the flow of new residents. That’s a critical part of the region’s need to grow and sustain its population made necessary by the number of people leaving the region and a death rate that exceeds the birth rate.

So far, Washington Co. has attracted the largest share of new residents. The most current population estimates show its annual growth rate a 2.38%. Sullivan Co.’s growth rate was 1.68% and the Kingsport-Church Hill-Mt. Carmel-Rogersville corridor rate was 2.34%. Carter Co. and Washington Co. VA has estimated population growth rates of 0.11% and 0.04%. A population growth rate of 0.5% to 1% per year is the target for a healthy economy without quality of life erosion, traffic and the other typical growth-related issues.

The Winter Index also comes at a time when many locals have grown weary of the concentrated growth and growing pains. The rapid growth in Johnson City and Washington Co. has prompted extensive efforts to study ways to cope with the growing pains and mitigate residents’ concerns.

Methodology for the Index uses the median home listing price trend instead of the sales price trend, which is the metric used in most housing reports. According to the Northeast Tennessee Association of Realtors (NETAR), the annual median listing price last year was $328,323 in the Johnson City metro area and $299,520 in Kingsport-Bristol.

NETAR’s annual report also shows the listing price in both metro areas was reduced in a 53% all sales last year. The average price reduction was $18,882. The most common reduction was $10,000.

NETAR’s Home Sales Report shows the Johnson City metro area had a 2023 annual median sales price for existing single-family and condo sales of $285,000, up 7.95% from the previous year.

The annual median sales price in Kingsport-Bristol was $250,000, up 11.3% from the previous year.

The region’s two metro areas, plus Greene and Johnson counties, posted a double-digit annual price increase in 2020 (12.8%), 2021 (19.7%) 2022 (12.8%) and 2023 (10.7%). Last year’s increase was the highest growth rate among East Tennessee’s metro areas.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the overall methodology for the index explores two main areas: real-estate markets and economic health. Those two areas comprise the following key indicators: real-estate supply (16.6%); real-estate demand (16.6%); median home-listing-price trend (16.6%); unemployment (6.25%); wages (6.25%); regional price parities (6.25%); amenities (6.25%); commute (6.25%); foreign-born residents (6.25%); small businesses (6.25%); property taxes (6.25%).

Each indicator is indexed to normalize the data, and a composite score is produced by adding those values for each market. If two or more markets tie in their final score, the real-estate demand indicator is used to break the tie.

Categories: REAL ESTATE