Conventional wisdom holds the Tri-Cities got a population boost compliments of all those one-way U-Hauls that ended up here. There’s no doubt the region gained new residents. But an annual Census study on components of population change shows the local population growth was a blip – not a spike. That’s because the net population is a combination of births, deaths, new residents, and residents who moved elsewhere.
The birth rate in the seven counties that make up the Johnson City-Bristol-Kingsport TN VA Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area (CSA) was down last year. The death rate was up. And after the numbers are crunched, the region had an estimated population growth of 0.2% – 953 people. That doesn’t include Greene and Johnson counties.
All-in-all it was another year when the Tri-Cities’ population growth lagged its regional neighbors. But the glass is half full. It’s half full because the components of population change estimate are through July. There’s another half year of data out there, and the last half of 2020 was when the U-Haul factor flourished. We’ll get a new set of numbers later this year; however, the estimates have a 3% plus-minus history.
Census calls most of the annual components of population change data a “research series” rather than official estimates. That research shows the region’s population grew, but the year-over-year growth rate was less than it was in 2019 and 2018. Here’s how the 2020 v. 2019 population numbers look for the region’s CSAs:
Knoxville-Morristown-Sevierville, TN – 1,157,575, up 0.7%
Chattanooga-Cleveland-Dalton, TN-GA – 1,010,980, up 0.7%
Asheville-Marion-Brevard, NC – 546,914, up 0.6%
Tri-Cities – 512,723, up 0.2%
The slow-growth mode is consistent with the first numbers of the 2020 Census. That first set of numbers shows that the U.S. population on April 1, 2020, increased 7.4% between 2010 and 2020. It is the second-lowest rate of expansion since the government began taking a census in 1790.
A 2010 v. 2020 comparison for our region is:
Asheville – up 8.7%
Chattanooga – up 6.3%
Knoxville – up 7.5%
Tri-Cities – up 0.9%
Population estimates for the Tri-Cities’ two MSA plus Greene and Johnson Counties are:
Johnson City MSA – up 0.3%, 204,540
Carter Co. – up 0.04%, 56,418
Unicoi Co. – down 0.9%, 17,775
Washington Co. – up 0.5%, 130,367
Kingsport-Bristol MSA – up 0.1%, 308,183
Hawkins – down 0.1%, 56,775
Sullivan Co. – up 0.2%, 158,775
Scott Co. Va. – up 0.2%, 21,629
Washington Co. Va. – down 0.3%, 53,695
Bristol, Va. – up 1.7%, 17,329
Greene Co. – up 0.6%, 69,571
Johnson Co. – up 0.4%, 17849
Here’s a capsule look at the 2020 v. 2019 primary components of population change as of July last year. The drill-down moves from the Consolidated Metro Area to the MSA then to the counties that make up the MSA. Greene and Johnson counties are not part of the Census area designation, but they’re included because they are part of the regional marketplace.
BIRTH RATE
Johnson City – Kingsport-Bristol TN VA MSA – down 1.3%, 4,642 births
Johnson City Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) – down 1.8%, 1,837 births
Carter Co. – down 3.4%, 451 births
Unicoi Co. – down 3.7%, 144 births
Washington Co. – down 0.9%, 1,231 births
Kingsport-Bristol MSA – down 1.1%, 2,805 births
Hawkins Co. – up 1.9%, 527 births
Sullivan Co. – down 1.8%, 1,491
Scott Co. Va. – down 4.9%, 155 births
Washington Co. Va. – up 4.3%, 461 births
Bristol Va. – down 11.9%., 171 births
Greene Co. – down 2.2%, 652 births
Johnson Co. – down 2.6%, 149 births
DEATH RATE
Johnson City – Kingsport-Bristol – up 4.9%, 6,743 deaths
Johnson City MSA – up 4%, 2,630 deaths
Carter Co. – up 6.8%, 835 deaths
Unicoi Co. – down 0.3%, 295 deaths
Washington Co. – up 3.4%, 1,500 deaths
Kingsport-Bristol – up 5.5%, 4,133 deaths
Hawkins Co. – up 12%, 842 deaths
Sullivan Co. – up 1.3%, 2,144 deaths
Scott Co. Va. – up 19.7%, 267 deaths
Washington Co. Va. – up 4.1%, 656 deaths
Bristol Va. – up 14.6%, 204 deaths
Green Co. – up 7%, 1,022 deaths
Johnson Co. – down 1.5%, 257 deaths
NET MIGRATION
johnson City – Kingsport- Bristol – up 0.4%, 3,504 people
Johnson City MSA – up 3.1% – 1,350 people
Carter Co. – up 48.2%, 406 people
Unicoi Co. – down 110.4%, down 19 people
Washington Co. – up 12.9%, 964 people.
Kingsport-Bristol – down 1.6%, 1,704 people
Hawkins Co. – down 26.7%, 234 people
Sullivan Co. – down 26.7%, 941 people
Scott Co. Va. – up 1,962%, 165 people
Washington Co. Va. – down 161.7%, 37 people (2019 population was down 60 people)
Bristol Va. – up 76.8%, 327 people.
Greene Co. – up 351.5%, 818 people
Johnson Co. – up 50%, 183 people
©donfenley.com all rights reserved
Categories: DEMOGRAPHICS
Leave a Reply