By DON FENLEY

The Tri-Cities region is growing at a pace that, if sustained, would land it squarely in the sweet spot for long-term economic health.

The nine-county region added 21,124 residents between 2020 and 2025, a 3.6% gain over five years. Projected across a full decade at the current rate, that puts the region on course for approximately 7.2% growth by 2030. That’s well within the 5% to 10% range widely considered optimal for sustaining economic vitality without triggering the congestion, crime, and quality-of-life pressures that accompany rapid over-expansion.

As a region, the Tri-Cities is performing well. At the mid-decade point, its growing, but not overheating. The concern is at the extremes: Washington TN is absorbing disproportionate growth pressure while Carter, Unicoi, and the Virginia counties risk the slow erosion that comes with population stagnation or decline. A healthy region needs its communities growing together, not diverging. And the regional headline masks a considerably uneven picture at the county level.

Tracking for the first five years of the period, the year-over-year population growth pace has been up and down. The best growth was in the 2021-2022 estimates. It was followed by a decline for the next two years all but Greene, Carter, and Washington, VA in 2022-2023. Only Washington Co. TN and Sullivan regained the positive year-over-year growth rate in the 2024-2025 estimates.

Here’s with the growth looks like if the five-year aggregate pace is sustained.

Sullivan Co., the region’s most populous jurisdiction, is on a projected nearly textbook decadal trajectory of 7%. Johnson Co. projects to 8.2%, and Greene County to 9.9%, both within the healthy band and approaching its upper end. These three counties appear to be absorbing growth at a manageable pace.

Washington Co., TN posted the region’s strongest five-year growth rate at 6%, projecting to nearly 12% over a full decade. Johnson City and the surrounding Washington Co. corridor have been the region’s primary growth engine. And the data suggest that growth pressure there is intensifying, so is pushback from some residents.

Hawkins Co. sits almost exactly at the upper boundary, projecting to 10% for the decade. Worth watching closely in the second half of the decade.

Carter Co. 1.7% five-year gain projects to only 3.4% over a decade – well below the 5% floor that supports sustained tax base growth, labor force depth, and viable local services. Unicoi Co. has posted a net population loss over the period and is trending in the wrong direction entirely.

Scott Co. VA is on a projected decadal decline of 3.7%, and Washington Co. VA is essentially flat. Both face structural demographic headwinds that show no sign of a reversal in the annual data.

Categories: TRENDS