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By DON FENLEY

The Tri-Cities housing market added inventory across all price tiers in the first quarter of 2026, but the growth story belongs to the move-up market. The $300,000-to-$499,999 tier listings were the broadest and most consistent gains of the quarter. Active listings region-wide rose 3.6%.

That analysis comes from the TCI Group, the region’s largest commercial real estate firm. It tracks residential inventory as a leading indicator of household wealth formation and consumer demand which signals retail, office and mixed-use investment conditions.

The move-up tier’s expansion was the quarter’s most significant signal. Bristol’s $300,000-to-$399,999 inventory – the bottom range of the move-up market – jumped 41% over the quarter, from 68 listings in January to 96 in March. Johnson City’s $400,000-to-$499,999 count – the top range of the move-up market – grew from 168 to 184. Across the Tri-Cities the full move-up band had 926 active listings at mid-month, up from 865 in January.

For TCI Group, the move-up market’s depth is a direct proxy for rising household discretionary income in the region. A sustained expansion in that tier signals a consumer base with the capacity to support neighborhood retail, medical services, and mixed-use development.

Q1 2025 Active Listings by Price Tier — Tri-Cities Composite

Active mid-month March residential listings: TCI Group, MLS data.

The affordable segment – $160,000 to $299,999 – remained the region’s largest inventory category, accounting for roughly 40% of all March listings. But the tier’s composition shifted subtly during the quarter.

Johnson City led the region in total volume with 980 listings in March, a 39.2% share of the composite. Its inventory above $400,000 reached 266 listings. Its $1 million-and-above count of 57 in March was the region’s highest by a wide margin and reflects a broadening price ceiling in what has historically been a middle-market metro.

March 2025 Active Listings by Sub-Market

Active mid-month March residential listings. Source: TCI Group, MLS data.

Greeneville is the market TCI Group is watching most closely heading into the second quarter. Despite being the region’s smallest sub-market by volume, it posted the highest relative luxury concentration in the Tri-Cities. Listings priced above $500,000 accounted for 22.9% of its March inventory, and its $1 million-and-above count rose from 17 in January to 19 in March. That tier’s 4.6% share of total Greeneville inventory in March was the highest of any sub-market.

The Greeneville pattern is consistent with wealth in-migration the firm has been tracking from the Knoxville corridor and western North Carolina mountain markets.

For commercial real estate, that migration carries implications for premium retail, boutique hospitality, and medical office demand in a market that has historically been under-built in those categories.

Kingsport’s inventory profile reinforces its role as the region’s most stable mid-market. Roughly 55% of its March listings fell between $200,000 and $399,999. That’s the range that anchors neighborhood retail trade areas and supports the household density that drives community-scale commercial investment. Its February-to-March gain of 1.6% was the most measured of any sub-market, suggesting a market in balance rather than one adding supply ahead of demand.

Bristol’s inventory grew 15% over the quarter, from 367 listings in January to 422 in March. But the sub-market’s price profile remained the region’s most compressed. More than 92% of its March listings were priced below $500,000, with minimal representation above $600,000. For commercial developers, that profile points to a market still anchored in workforce and first-time buyer segments, with limited near-term signals for upper-tier retail or mixed-use investment.

Categories: REAL ESTATE