By DON FENLEY

An analysis of new household formations from 2020 through 2025 reveals a distinct shift in Washington County’s migration story. What began as a pandemic-fueled rush of newcomers has steadily transformed into a targeted migration of older, wealthier, and lifestyle-driven residents.

Chamber of Commerce President and CEO says we’re seeing an intriguing mix of new residents. And they present some unique business opportunities, he added. Many are buying higher-end homes. Some own businesses elsewhere, but they want to live here. They’re attracted to the low cost of living and the quality of the local lifestyle.

A recurring theme with the most recent group is that they have children who moved here. They’re relocating to be close to them and the grandkids. It’s a fairly local relocation theme on the national level.

Despite the constant drumbeat from some locals that newcomers are ruining the local culture and creating too much traffic, Cantler says he’s seeing something different. “We’re working with a lot of folks who brought many skills and who want to be a part of the community,” he added.

The new normal for relocations began in earnest in 2020 and lasted through 2021. Since 2020 there have been 5,851 newcomer household formations. That’s not a population count. According to the Census, the average number of people per household is 2.3. So, a rough estimate of the total number of newcomers during the six-year period is a little south of 9,900.

The most current Census population count for the county is 136,261. Census data lags by a year, so that’s 2024 data. That Census report lists the Johnson City population as 72,222. It’s 6,232 in Jonesborough.

In 2020 alone, the county saw over 1,600 new households established by residents from out-of-state people. The demographic mix was remarkably balanced. While retirees were present, they were matched by a surge of younger adults. In 2020, the young adult segment (ages 18-29) and early career (30-44) cohorts made up more than 53% of all newcomers. The new resident’s average age was 44.5 years old.

Fast forward to 2025, and the picture has aged.

While the volume of newcomers has cooled, the residents who arrived last year are significantly older. The average age climbed to nearly 50.

Here’s how the BrightRidge connections for newcomers look and the median age from the beginning of the surge through 2025.

• 2020 – 1,4659, 42
• 2021 – 1,501, 44.8
• 2022 – 826, 48
• 2023 – 641, 45.9
• 2024 – 640, 47.7
• 2025 – 584, 51.6

Where did they come from?

Despite the occasional anecdote about Californians buying homes sight-unseen, the data shows the migration was overwhelmingly regional.

Three states consistently vied for the top out-of-state donor spot:

1. Virginia: A steady stream of regional consolidation.
2. North Carolina: Often neighbors from just over the mountain.
3. Florida: The half-back phenomenon is real.

Florida has become a wildcard in the annual relocation count. In 2021, it overtook all other states to become the top donor of new Washington County households. It sent over 200 families to the area in a single year. These are often retirees originally from the Northeast who moved to Florida but grew tired of the humidity or insurance costs, and settled halfway back in Tennessee.

Johnson City, the Hub

When these new residents arrived, the majority (roughly 50-60% annually) settled in Johnson City. It remains the undisputed economic and social hub for all age groups.

Jonesborough and Gray have emerged as strong contenders, particularly for the older demographic. In 2020, Jonesborough captured nearly 15% of all new households, appealing heavily to mid-life and early retirees.

The declining share of young professionals (ages 18-29) in the 2024-2025 data has dropped to around 20%. It was good news for the local labor market. Meanwhile, the rising median age of newcomers is a boon for healthcare systems, luxury housing developers, and service industries that cater to established wealth.

The pandemic boom may be over, but its legacy is a permanent demographic shift. The county and communities are older, more connected to Florida than ever before, and firmly on the map as a destination of choice.

Categories: TRENDS