By DON FENLEY

The 2025 Tri-Cities housing market closed the year with moderate annual regional price growth of 5.66%, but the real story is divergence. Pricing strength is increasingly shaped by location, buyer profile, and supply constraints at the community level.

This regional median price of $279,999 confirms that the market remains structurally higher than pre-pandemic norms, but price growth has clearly transitioned from surge to selective, market-specific gains.

Top-Performing Markets

Eight communities outpaced the annual regional median price growth rate:

• Abingdon: $350,000 | +19.66%
• Erwin: $253,750 | +15.34%
• Rogersville: $242,500 | +10.25%
• Church Hill: $270,000 | +10.2%
• Jonesborough: $408,625 | +8.97%
• Gray: $375,000 | +8.7%
• Johnson City $322,450 | 7.5%

These markets benefited from a mix of desirability, lower starting price points, and constrained resale inventory.

Core Stability Markets

Several population centers showed steady, sustainable appreciation, reinforcing their role as market anchors. They include:

• Johnson City: $322,450 | +7.5%
• Gray: $375,000 | +8.7%
• Greeneville: $278,965 | +3.32%
• Elizabethton: $249,000 | +3.75%
• Blountville: $317,780 | +4.22%

These gains reflect healthy turnover without excess speculation, suggesting pricing levels that remain broadly defensible moving into 2026.

 Markets With Declines

A smaller but notable group of communities experienced flat or declining medians:

• Bulls Gap: $237,500 | −14.26%
• Mount Carmel: $258,950 | −4.97%
• Piney Flats: $439,900 | −4.37%
• Telford: $306,450 | −2.71%
• Bristol: $226,000 | −1.74%
• Kingsport: $267,000 | −0.74%

In these markets, pricing overshoot, higher interest-rate sensitivity, and greater inventory choice limited sellers’ pricing power.

What This Tells Us

• The Tri-Cities is no longer a single housing market, but a collection of micro-markets.
• Affordability thresholds matter. Buyers are increasingly disciplined.
• Price growth in 2026 is likely to remain uneven and data-dependent, favoring markets with lifestyle appeal, constrained supply, or strong local demand drivers.

2025 confirmed the shift into a post-surge, structurally higher but selective pricing environment. Success going forward will depend less on regional averages and more on understanding where price growth is still supported, or where it isn’t.

Categories: REAL ESTATE