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By DON FENLEY

The Tri-Cities housing market entered 2026 with a clearer internal structure than at any point since the pandemic, according to the TCI Group Annualized Home Sales Tracker. January’s annualized home sales reached the highest level of the past year and confirmed the market is reallocating.

Tracking annualized sales matters because it strips out seasonal noise and shows where demand is truly building or fading. Structurally, the local market is being defined by how buyers behave across three distinct price bands: affordable, move-up, and luxury.

January’s report illustrates how the market has found its footing.

• Affordability drives volume
• Move-up homes drive price discovery
• Luxury sales drive selectivity—not growth

The market entering 2026 is quieter, more disciplined, and far more segmented than the boom years. Success now depends less on timing and more on understanding where buyers are still willing and able to transact.

Affordability carries the load

The $160,000 to $299,999 price range remains the backbone of the market.

In January, it accounted for just over half of all. That concentration confirms what buyers and agents are already feeling on the ground: demand is strongest where homes still fit within local incomes and payment tolerances.

Top performers

• Johnson City leads decisively, posting 1,204 sales in this range
• Kingsport follows with 1,062 sales
• Greeneville contributes 525, reflecting steady but smaller-scale demand
• Bristol adds 687, underscoring its role as a value-oriented market

This tier remains highly competitive, fast-moving, and supply constrained.

Move-up market has controlled strength

The $300,000 to $499,999 move-up market tells a different story, one of normalization rather than overheating.

January annualized sales accounted for roughly one-third of all Tri-Cities activity. That balance matters. It signals that equity-driven move-up buyers are still active, but no longer chasing inventory at any price.

Top performers

• Johnson City again dominates with 1,036 sales, reflecting deeper buyer pools and higher incomes
• Kingsport follows with 580 sales, showing steady but more selective movement
• Bristol and Greeneville trail with 382 and 313, respectively

This tier now defines the market’s “decision zone.” Homes priced correctly sell. Homes priced stall until there’s a price reduction. The move-up segment has become the market’s primary price-discovery mechanism heading into 2026.

Luxury active -but selective

The $500,000+ luxury market generated 16% of the 12-month activity. That headline number hides a crucial internal shift.

Most demand is concentrated in the $500,000 to $699,999 range. Above that, the market thins rapidly.

Top performers

• Johnson City is the clear luxury anchor with 497 sales, nearly half of all high-end transactions
• Kingsport follows at 162, supported by established equity households
• Bristol and Greeneville post more modest totals, reflecting narrower buyer pools

The data reinforces that the Tri-Cities luxury market is not disappearing, but it is consolidating geographically and price-wise.

Upper luxury ceiling more visible

The most important signal in January’s data appears at the very top of the market.

Sales between $700,000 and $900,999 totaled just 220 annualized transactions. Above $900,000, activity drops further, with only 123 sales including the $1-million+ tier.

Johnson City accounts for the majority of this activity, while other submarkets show thin, sporadic demand.

This confirms a critical shift:

The Tri-Cities now has a defined luxury ceiling.

Homes above $700,000 still sell, but only when they are exceptional, well-located, and correctly priced. Inventory above this range is no longer absorbed by momentum alone.

Home sales shape commercial market

The home sales pattern in each sub-market doesn’t just shape neighborhoods – it quietly determines what kind of commercial real estate gets built next. Here’s how the region’s housing mix is now translating into bricks, mortar, and capital flows.

Bristol TN/VA – medical & multifamily
Bristol’s housing market is dominated by mid-priced and upper-mid homes, which tends to attract older households, healthcare workers, and equity-rich movers. That combination fuels demand for medical offices, clinics, outpatient centers, and workforce-oriented apartments. Bristol’s commercial future is increasingly tied to healthcare and residential services.

Greeneville –  industrial & flex space
Greeneville’s housing market shows weaker absorption at the higher price tiers, but steady turnover at the affordable and midrange levels. That points to a workforce-driven economy rather than a wealth-driven one. The commercial real estate that thrives here is industrial, warehouse, and flex space that supports manufacturing, logistics, trades, and small business operations rather than high-end retail or office.

Johnson City –  retail & mixed-use
Johnson City has the strongest balance of price tiers and the deepest pool of higher-income households. That creates consistent foot traffic, spending power, and household growth. The result is sustained demand for grocery-anchored retail, lifestyle retail, mixed-use projects, and service-oriented commercial space near medical, university, and residential hubs.

Kingsport –  professional office & services
Kingsport’s housing market is more top-heavy, with slower turnover in the luxury tiers. That tends to favor professional office, financial services, and business-to-business uses rather than retail or speculative development. Kingsport’s commercial future is built on stable, service-oriented tenants rather than high-velocity consumer traffic.

Categories: REAL ESTATE