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By DON FENLEY 

For years, the Tri-Cities housing conversation centered on one question: How many homes sold? That metric still matters, but it no longer tells the full story.

Today’s market is better understood by asking where are buyers actually able to transact? The answer lies in market share. And the data from 2018 through 2025 shows a housing market that hasn’t stalled or overheated. It has quietly and decisively rebalanced itself.

The Tri-Cities housing market hasn’t cooled. It has grown up.

Affordable homes still matter. But move-up buyers shape momentum. Luxury sales reflect steady capital confidence. Together, these shifts form a market that is more segmented, more data-driven, and far less forgiving of guesswork.

In this environment, understanding market share isn’t optional. It’s the difference between reacting to the market and anticipating it.

Built on Affordability But Not Defined by It

Homes priced between $160,000 and $299,999 remain the foundation of the Tri-Cities housing market. In 2025, this segment accounted for 41.5% of all sales, up sharply from 30.8% in 2018.

That growth tells a clear story: demand for attainable housing never went away because of higher prices and interest rates. But the data also reveals a subtle shift. After peaking at 43.9% in 2024, the affordable share edged lower in 2025, not because buyers disappeared, but because supply became the limiting factor.

In other words, affordability pressure capped demand rather than weakening it.

This segment has now stabilized above the 40% threshold for several years. It’s the market structural anchor instead of being the growth engine.

The Rise of the Move-Up Market

If there is one segment that defines the modern Tri-Cities market, it’s the move-up tier ($300,000–$499,999).

In 2018, move-up homes represented 9.0% of sales. By 2025, it had more than tripled to 31.8%.

This wasn’t a temporary pandemic-era anomaly. It was a structural shift driven by:

• Significant homeowner equity gains
• In-migration from higher-cost regions
• Rising construction and replacement costs
• A growing cohort of buyers able to leverage existing assets rather than enter at the bottom

Since 2022, nearly one in three homes sold has landed in this price range. That makes the move-up market the primary driver of price growth, negotiation dynamics, and sales momentum across the region.

What Luxury Market Really Signals

The luxury segment – homes priced $500,000 and up – remains the smallest slice of the market, but it has posted the most dramatic relative growth.

Luxury market share climbed from 1.7% in 2018 to 12.6% in 2025.

This expansion reflects more than lifestyle purchases. It points to:

• Capital inflows from outside the region
• Higher-income households choosing the Tri-Cities for value, not compromise
• A redefinition of “luxury” shaped by land, labor, and material costs

Importantly, luxury growth has occurred without destabilizing the broader market. Its share remains controlled, selective, and highly sensitive to rates.

Why Market Share Matters More Than Ever

Sales totals tell us how active a market is. Market share tells us how it works.

Market share reveals:

• Structural demand, not seasonal noise
• Where pricing power is shifting
• Which buyers are gaining leverage, and which are constrained
• How median prices can rise even when total sales normalize

In the Tri-Cities, market share explains why price growth persists and why success increasingly belongs to those who understand which segments are expanding and which are supply-limited.

Categories: TRENDS