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By DON FENLEY
Sullivan and Washington counties find themselves slightly more exposed to a market downturn than they were a year ago, according to ATTOM’s latest housing market risk analysis. However, both are still holding firm in the safer tier of the 580 U.S. housing markets in the analysis.
ATTOM, a leading curator of real estate data, tracks housing vulnerability by measuring affordability, unemployment, foreclosure activity, and the share of seriously underwater mortgages.
In ATTOM’s system, higher numbers mean lower risk. So, while neither county fell dramatically from the rankings in Q3 last year, the dip signals a modest increase in risk exposure.
Taken in context, both counties still sit on relatively solid footing. With 580 markets in the analysis, rankings in the 500s reflect more stability than vulnerability. “What really separated the riskiest market are their high rates of foreclosures and unemployment,” said ATTOM CEO Rob Barber. “If a community is losing jobs, those homeowners will find it harder to pay their monthly mortgage bills.”
The biggest local downward pressure was a softer labor market. These jobless rate declines are not alarming numbers on their own, but in a risk model where job loss is one of the strongest predictors of mortgage distress, even small increases matter.
Foreclosures also ticked slightly higher. They are still extremely low by national standards, but enough to contribute to the counties’ lower rankings.
Despite those headwinds, several forces helped anchor the local market:
- Homeowners gained equity, cutting underwater mortgages nearly in half.
- Affordability improved modestly, easing the pressure that had been intensifying through 2023 and 2024.
- Foreclosures remain low, limiting the risk of distressed sales affecting pricing.
Those strengths help explain why, even with year-over-year slippage, the Tri-Cities remain comfortably in the least vulnerable half of the nation.
For local homeowners and buyers, the message is balanced but reassuring:
- Risk is slightly higher than last year, largely due to job-market pressure.
- But both counties remain among the markets least vulnerable to a downturn.
- Equity strength and extremely low foreclosure rates continue to underwrite market stability.
- Affordability has inched in a more favorable direction, offering modest relief for would-be buyers.
The Tri-Cities housing vulnerability story this year isn’t one of warning signs. It’s a reminder that even in a shifting economic climate, this region continues to outperform many of its peers on the state and local levels.
The least vulnerable county in Tennessee in the current report is Rutherford, with a ranking of 562, followed by Davidson with a 561 ranking.
The most vulnerable was Montgomery, with a 347 ranking.
