The past five years show encouraging progress: household incomes have risen faster than inflation, leaving fewer families at the lowest rungs and pushing more households into the middle and upper ranges. But there’s a counterweight. The median home price surged 73% during the same period, leaving even many higher-earning households struggling to keep pace with housing costs.

Household Data from the Census Bureau

These trends are drawn from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) for the Johnson City-Kingsport-Bristol Combined Statistical Area. It’s worth noting this is an undercount of the Tri-Cities market since Greene and Johnson counties are not included in the survey sample, even though they are key parts of the broader reginal market.

Households Outpacing Inflation

Between 2019 and 2024, inflation drove up prices by about 23%. Yet local incomes climbed even faster. After adjusting for today’s dollars, the number of households making less than $25,000 shrank significantly, while middle-income households expanded, and six-figure households surged. This isn’t just inflation reshuffling the brackets. It’s upward mobility.

Housing: The Balancing Challenge

The housing market tells a different story. A 73% rise in median home prices has far outstripped both inflation and household income growth. The result:

• Entry-level buyers face tighter constraints, even when incomes improve.
• Middle-income households now find the path to homeownership narrower, despite being stronger on paper.
• Higher-income households are better positioned, but even they contend with much steeper housing costs than before.

What This Means for the Community

• Local businesses see more prosperity-driven spending, but affordability concerns may limit long-term workforce growth.
• Housing demand is tilting upward, putting stress on affordability at the bottom and creating competition in mid-tier markets.
• Community planning faces a crossroads: the region is wealthier overall, but housing affordability is quickly becoming a defining issue.

Households by Income 2019 v. 2024

Fewer Households at the Bottom

• Even after accounting for inflation, the number of households living on the lowest incomes has dropped sharply. Fewer families are stuck below $25,000 in today’s dollars.

The Middle Holds and Grows

• The heart of the local income spectrum – households earning roughly $40,000 to $100,000 – has not only held its own but expanded. These families represent the backbone of the community, where stability, homeownership, and spending power converge. Their growth suggests that more households have moved into a more stable standing even after adjusting for higher costs.

Strong Gains at the Top

• The upper brackets tell the most dramatic story. Households earning the equivalent of six figures or more in today’s dollars have surged well beyond what inflation would explain.
• Households in the $150,000 – $199,999 bracket are up 133%. Households earning $200,000 or more are up 65%.
• Some of this can be attributed to new residents and an increasing wealth distribution from Baby Boomers to their children and grandchildren. The pace and volume of that wealth distribution will increase during the next 10 years. The bottom line is the region now has a much stronger concentration of affluent households.

Household incomes are climbing, and the economic base is stronger than it was five years ago. But the runaway pace of housing costs risks erasing some of that progress. The question for the region is no longer whether incomes are rising – it’s whether households can turn those gains into the security of homeownership and long-term stability.

Categories: REAL ESTATE