Greeneville’s unemployment rate surged for a couple months this summer. It was  6.8% in July. That puzzled many since the county didn’t experience significant job losses. Just a month later, the rate corrected sharply, falling to 4.8% in August. The swings highlight how the unemployment rate is developed and why it can move so dramatically in counties like Greene.

How the Rate Is Calculated

The unemployment rate is not a direct tally of layoffs. Instead, it’s an estimate produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) using a survey of about 31,000 Tennessee residents each month. That small sample is then modeled down to the county level.

Because it is built on estimates, not a headcount, the unemployment rate can swing more sharply in smaller counties.

The Commuter Effect

Greeneville’s workforce is highly mobile. A little over half of Greene County’s workers commute to jobs outside the county, primarily in the Kingsport–Bristol and Johnson City metros. Here’s where measurement rules matter:

If a worker becomes unemployed, they are counted in the unemployment statistics for the county where they live, not the county where they worked. Unemployment is measured by the residence of the unemployed person, not the location of their former workplace.

That means job losses in surrounding metros often ripple into Greene County’s unemployment rate. In fact, July’s actual payroll report showed a decline of 1,131 jobs in the Johnson City metro area and 826 in Kingsport–Bristol. While that data counts jobs – not the residence of workers – it’s likely that some of those lost positions belonged to Greene County commuters and helped drive the Greeneville jobless rate spike.

From Spike to Correction

The July spike to 6.8% was less about local employers cutting jobs and more about how survey-based modeling interacts with Greeneville’s commuter-heavy workforce. The quick drop to 4.8% in August underscores the volatility of these estimates. Over time, the rate usually smooths out and tracks the broader regional trend more reliably than month-to-month swings suggest.

The Bottom Line

Greeneville’s summer unemployment story is a reminder of how the rate is built. It is an estimate – derived from surveys and models – not a precise count of local layoffs. With over half of its workforce commuting to neighboring metros, Greene County’s rate is as much a mirror of regional labor pressures as it is of local payrolls.

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