By MICHELLE DAVIS
Most focus on who’s buying homes is on newcomers, and the just-released Census population estimates affirm that more are on the way. There might not be quite as many of them as there have been, according to several migration trackers, but the shine is still on our region.
Although it sounds like a contradiction, the focus on newcomers could be too much attention on the housing market’s low-hanging fruit even though according to Census, the region has seen record population growth for the past two years. That’s a consideration because there’s credible research by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) that there’s a little over 10,000 locals who can be put in the local pent-up demand category.
According to NAR’s Research Department, there’re an estimated 10,404 locals who are on the home buying sidelines. Some are waiting for better mortgage rates but are beginning to realize that rates are not likely to fall much in the near term. Others want to see prices fall, but that too doesn’t seem like a near-term probability. And there is a group who are ready and willing but the product they want is not out there in numbers great enough to budge them off the sideline.
So, who are these locals in our bulging pent-up demand class?
Here’s NAR’s estimates.
Johnson City Metro Area
This is the region attracting most newcomers; however, it’s the second Kingsport-Bristol metro area in pent-up demand.
Most of the returning buyers (3,749) are owners. Another 1,058 are renters.
Here’s how they break down by age groups.
- 1,082 are 35-44.
- 873 are 55-64.
- 671 are 45-54.
- 665 are 25-34.
- 547 are 75 and older.
- 488 are 65-74.
- 481 are in their early 20s.
Kingsport-Bristol Metro Area
Although this area lags the population growth of its neighbor top the south, it has more local pent-up demand, according to NAR’s research.
There’s also quite a bit of pent-up demand demographic variance between the two metro areas.
Owners account for 4,369 potential Kingsport-Bristol returning buyers. The renter total is 1,232.
Here’s NAR’s estimate of them by age groups.
- 1,340 are 65-74.
- 1,033 are 55-64.
- 954 are 75 and older.
- 817 are 45-54.
- 816 are 35-44.
- -465 are 24-34.
- 176 are in their early 20s.
Of course, NAR’s numbers – like the Census population growth projections – are estimates, so there will be some give and take on the final numbers, but combined they point to a continued challenge to meet the housing demands in both the near and mid-term. Just don’t let the media and public fascination with population growth pay too much attention to the who, what, and where of overall housing demand and potential.
Michelle Davis is the president of the Northeast Tennessee Association of Realtors.