By DON FENLEY

Later this week, the public will get its first look at some new Census Bureau population numbers for NE TN and SW VA.

The 2023 estimates of total population and components of population change report won’t answer some of the most frequent questions about newcomers. For instance, it won’t detail why these newbies selected the Tri-Cities region. It also won’t tell us how many are what age.  And it won’t offer anything about their political persuasions, or how they might vote.

What it will do is give a pretty good count of how many and where the new residents are moving. It will also dive into the granular issues of population change – the birth and death rates and net migration. Net migration is important because some locals pick up and move elsewhere every year. Most of them are recent graduates who can’t find or don’t see opportunities here.

With that said, the 2023 Johnson City Chamber of Commerce and BrightRidge data about new out-of-state residents from Washington Co. provides some insights into the questions about new residents – including some age breakdowns.

Last year Washington Co. gained at least 626 new households. While that doesn’t provide the number that Census offers – we have to wait almost a year for that report – it’s safe to say that those households represent well over 1,000 new residents. It’s noteworthy that Tennessee residents rank high in the number of new regional residents, but this count is for out-of-state residents only.

About half of those newbies settled in Johnson City.

Here’s the percentage for outside the city:

• Gray, 19%
• Jonesborough, 18%
• Kingsport, 4%. The Model City is included because BrightRidge extends power and internet service to a sliver of that city’s geography.
• Piney Flats, 3%
• Telford, 1%
• Chuckey, 1%
• Fall Branch 0.5%

Johnson City and Washington County have the youngest median age in the region, and last year’s new residents flow adds to it. The newcomers’ median age was 48, and 53% were under the age of 50. One-in-three of them are 65 or older. The most common age was 24.

That was good news for Chamber Manager Bob Cantler. He said, We’re excited about growth and especially the number of new residents who are working age. It’s very important because this workforce age numbers helps keep our business and economies healthy.

Typically, a growing labor force and labor force participation rate signals an increase in productivity and the overall economy. A lower number – especially a lower labor force participation rate – may signal an ailing labor market and struggling economy.

Civic, government, and business leaders throughout the region fret about the numbers because the regional labor force participation rate runs about 10% below the national level. That’s because many regional residents are older than the state and national averages. And it’s why some locals worry about the number of retirees they see moving here.

The bright side for Washington County is it has the highest labor force participation rate in NE TN.

Another often asked question about is where are these people coming from? Some have special angst about the number from New York, and California who are showing up in NE TN.

Washington County’s 2023 out-of-state numbers show the top donor states are from the South. Here’s the top three.

• Florida, 16%
• North Carolina, 12%
• Virginia, 10%

Californians accounted for 8% of the newcomers and the percentage of New Yorkers was 5%.

Stay tuned for the first look at the first flush of 2023 local and regional numbers in the coming week, or so.

Categories: DEMOGRAPHICS