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Tri-Cities home market sizzles into a new price sweet spot

By donfenley.com on November 21, 2020

The Tri-Cities housing market sizzled into November as it settles into a new sales and price benchmark.

Sales in the local major city areas during the 12-month period ending in mid-November were 6.9% higher than the same time period ending in November 2019. It’s also noteworthy that the market share of home sales in the higher price ranges continues to increase. And homes are selling faster than ever.

REGIONAL MARKET SHARE

Resales in the $200,000 and below price range still dominate the local city markets. But that dominance continues to decline. In November, the market share was 61%, down from 68% in during the 12 months ending in Nov 2019. And when you look back to November 2015 – the year the market began launching into its current break-neck pace – they accounted for 76% of all sales.

Sales in the $200,000 to $399,999 price range are now the sweet spot. Since 2015 they have increased market share from 21% to 32%.

Here’s what the rest of the city area’s market share looks like in mid-November.

$400,000-$599,999 – 4.91%

$600,000 – $799,999 – 1.26%

$800,000 – $1 million-plus – 0.26%

REGIONAL MARKET SHARE GROWTH RATE

Here’s what the market share growth rate looked like for the 12-month period ending in mid-Nov. vs. those in the 12-month period Nov. 2018 to 2019 look like.

$200,000 and below, down 4%

$200,000 – $399,999, up 25%

$400,000 – $599,999, up 57%

$600,00 – $799,999, up, 765%

$800,000- $1 million plus, down 26%.

CITY AREAS MARKET SHARE BY PRICE RANGE

The Johnson City area had the highest market share among the four-city area in all price ranges except the $200,000 and below range, where it had the lowest market share.

$200,000 and below

Kingsport area – 67%

Bristol Twin Cities – 66%

Greeneville area – 64%

Johnson City area – 55%

$200,000 – $399,999

Johnson City area – 37%

Greeneville area – 31%

Bristol Twin Cities – 28%

Kingsport area – 28%

$400,000 – $599,999

Johnson City area – 5.98%

Bristol Twin Cities – 4.71%

Greeneville area – 4.33%

Kingsport – 3.73%

$600,000 – $799,999

Johnson City area – 1.65%

Bristol Twin Cities – 1.54%

Greeneville area – 0.82%

Kingsport area – 0.70%

$800,000 – $1 million +

Johnson City area – 0.38%

Bristol Twin Cities – 0.23%

Greeneville area – 0.31%

Kingsport area – 0.09%

HOMES ARE SELLING FAST

Normal market conditions used to be defined as six months of inventory. That means that if conditions were constant, all of the homes on the market would be gone in six months. That was dropped to five months in the pre-pandemic era as the market began setting sales and price records. The Tri-Cities market dipped below normal standards last year. A new normal won’t be determined until the post-pandemic hot market stabilizes.

According to the Northeast Tennessee Association of Realtors October Home Sales Report, the average time on market for the local region it monitors was 100 days. The median was 57 days. That means half of all the homes were selling in 57 or fewer days. That metric is not only a useful tool for what the market has done. It can be a forward-looking indicator. If the time on the market drops, demand is increasing. If homes begin lingering on the market and it increases, that means demand is declining.