Look for a continuation of brisk existing home sales in Hawkins, Sullivan and Washington counties for the next 90 days.
Those three local counties have a pre-mover index that’s higher the than Tennessee and national benchmark, according to Attom Data Solutions‘ Q2 Pre-Mover Index.
The index is predictive of a high percentage of homeowners moving in the third quarter. The full methodology is at the bottom of this report.
The Northeast Tennessee Association of Realtors reported area home sales posted their 7th straight record month in July and a year-to-date and market share analysis of that report show Washington, Sullivan, and Hawkins among the most lively local markets.
The index also points to Washington County having the highest share of investment properties with a pre-move indicator.
Sullivan County has the higher Q2 index in the region – 178, followed by Hawkins county – 172 – then Washington county – 164. An index above 100 indicates more sales than the national average.
The indexes for all three counties have declined from Q2 last year, and Hawkins County has the lowest decline – 10%- compared to Sullivan, down 25% and Washington down 35%.
Tennessee Q2 index is 94, so statewide resales are below what’s expected national wide in the next three months.
“A higher pre-mover index bodes well for local real estate agents, home improvement stores, moving companies and others that benefit from the halo effect of a home sale,” said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at Attom Data Solutions. “Meanwhile markets with a low pre-mover index likely have a scarcity of inventory available to buy or relatively weak demand from prospective buyers — or some combination of both — which is not optimal for businesses that rely on the home sale halo effect.”
Washington County has the highest percentage of single-family homes with a pre-mover indicator that was being purchased as investment properties. Here’s how that component of the index looked for the three local counties included in the report.
Washington County – 3.9%.
Sullivan – 2%
Hawkins – 0%
Investment properties had a 4.6% share of the home with a pre-mover indicator while Tennessee had 6.7%.
Homes with a pre-mover indicator for secondary homes were:
Hawkins – 1.8%
Sullivan – 2%
Washington – 1.9%
U.S. – 4.6%.
Tennessee – 2.6%.
The primary home occupancy types are:
Hawkins – 98.2%
Sullivan – 96%
Washington – 94.2
U.S. – 92.2%
Tennessee – 90.7%
Washington County has the best pre-moved index performance rating with 70% of the homes closed in 30 days followed by Hawkins County at 69%. Sullivan had a 30-day performance rating of 67%.
Using data collected from purchase loan applications on residential real estate transactions, the Attom Data Solutions Pre-Mover Housing Index is based on the ratio of homes with a “pre-mover” flag to total single-family homes and condos in a given geography, indexed off the national average. Any index above 100 is above the national average and indicates an above-average ratio of homes that will likely be sold in the next 30 to 90 days in a given market. Historical pre-mover data going back to Q1 2014 shows that 59 percent of homes with a pre-mover flag sell within 30 days of the estimated loan settlement date that is provided in the pre-mover data, and 76 percent sell within 90 days of that settlement date. The loan application data used for the pre-mover index also includes the intended purpose of the potential purchase: primary residence, secondary (vacation) home, or investment property.