Benchmarking the Great Restructuring


The term “The Great Recession” is burned deep into the lives of almost everyone. It was a huge event in everyone’s daily life.

But what about The Great Restructuring?

It’s having an effect that just as big – maybe bigger, but it generates less public attention.

Check out some of these benchmarking data points that compare pre-recession high points with their most current status. In some cases most current data lags the calendar by up to a year because while it’s available on the national level it’s a different story on the local level.

For this report, I’ll just benchmark the data and let readers draw their own conclusions.

SIZE OF THE ECONOMY

While the U.S. economy is 10% larger than it was at its pre-recession peak that’s not the case in the Tri-Cities.

According to Bureau of Economic Analysis reports for 2014 (2015 metro area data has not been released yet):

  • The Johnson City metro area’s real GDP was 2.1% lower than it was at its pre-recession peak.
  • The Kingsport-Bristol real GDP is 1.2% higher.

NON-FARM JOBS

Bureau of Labor Statistics:

  • Johnson City metro – down 500
  • Kingsport-Bristol metro – down 1,800

EMPLOYMENT

Bureau of Labor Statistics:

  • Johnson City metro – down 9,419
  • Kingsport-Bristol metro – down 6,404

PRIVATE SECTOR WEEKLY WAGE BUYING POWER

Bureau of Labor Statistics:

(April 2016 v. 2008 average – adjusted for inflation)

  • Johnson City metro – down $37 a week
  • Kingsport-Bristol metro – up $23 a week

TOTAL WAGES WEEKLY BUYING POWER

Bureau of Labor Statistics:

(2015 v. 2008 annual average – adjusted for inflation)

  • Carter County – up $17 a week
  • Unicoi County – up $26 a week
  • Washington County TN – up $36 a week
  • Sullivan Co. – up $10 a week
  • Hawkins Co. – up $14 a week
  • Scott Co. VA – up $1 a week
  • Washington Co. VA – up $8 a week

SALES TAX COLLECTIONS

Seasonally-adjusted by MTSU Department of Economics and Finance

May v. pre-recession high

  • Johnson City metro – up 9.7%
  • Kingsport-Bristol metro – up 8.5%

EXISTING HOME SALES

Northeast Tennessee Association of Realtors’ Trends Report

Year-to-date May 2016 v. Year-to-date May 2008

  • Johnson City metro – up 24%
  • Kingsport-Bristol metro – up 16.9%

AVERAGE HOME SALES PRICE

Northeast Tennessee Association of Realtors’ Trends Report

Year-to-date May 2016 v. Year-to-date May 2009

  • Johnson City metro – up 1.4%
  • Kingsport-Bristol metro – up 1.8%

NEW HOME PERMITS

The Market Edge

2015 annual v. 2006 annual

  • Tri-Cities region, down 69%

COUNTY BUSINESS ESTABLISHMENTS

Census Bureau

Total number of businesses:

2007 v. 2014

  • Washington County, TN – down 4.8%
  • Sullivan County, TN – down 6.9%

COUNTY BUSINESS’ PAID EMPLOYEES

Census Bureau

2007 v. 2014

  • Washington County, TN – down 7.9%
  • Sullivan County, TN – down 8%

ANNUAL COUNTY BUSINESS PAYROLL

Census Bureau

2007 v. 2014

  • Washington County, TN – up 13.5%
  • Sullivan County, TN – up 13.1%

POPULATION CHANGE April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2015, estimates

Census Bureau

  • Johnson City – up 3.7%
  • Kingsport – up 0.5%
  • Bristol, TN – up 0.1%
  • Bristol, VA – down 3.7%
  • Elizabethton – down 0.3%
  • Erwin – down 1.2%
  • Jonesborough – up 3.9%

HOUSEHOLDS RECEIVING SOCIAL SECURITY  2008 v. 2014

Census Bureau

  • Johnson City metro – 39.1%, up 4.6%
  • Kingsport-Bristol metro – 43.9%, up 5.3%

HOUSEHOLDS RECEIVING SSI 2008 v. 2014

Census Bureau

  • Johnson City metro – 6%, up 2.9%
  • Kingsport-Bristol metro – 7.9%, up 3%

HOUSEHOLDS RECEIVING CASH PUBLIC ASSISTANCE 2008 v. 2014

Census Bureau

  • Johnson City metro – 1.6%, up 0.5%
  • Kingsport-Bristol metro – 3.8%, up 1.1%

HOUSEHOLDS RECEIVING FOOD STAMPS 2008 v. 2014

Census Bureau

  • Johnson City metro – 15.9%, up 1.1%
  • Kingsport-Bristol metro – 18.3%, up 5.2%

MEDIAN INCOME FOR FULL-TIME WORKERS – 2008 v. 2014

Census Bureau

  • Johnson City metro
    • Male – $36,916, up 0.7%
    • Female – $30,594, up 10.9%
  • Kingsport-Bristol metro
    • Male – $41,874, up 15.7%
    • Female – $31,453, up 14.1%

MEDIAN INCOME FOR ALL WORKERS – 2008 v. 2014

Census Bureau

  • Johnson City metro – $24,075, up 7.6%
  • Kingsport-Bristol metro – $26,142, up 7.6%

 

Comments

  1. Thanks for sharing Don. Ashley Dean Wilson and Janine J Wilson appreciate your continued support of Realtors(r) and Realty companies in the TriCities!
    Janine and Ashley Wilson

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