Johnson City March Home Price Index outperforms Kingsport-Bristol, national index


CoreLogic Home Price Indexes for both Tri-Cities metro areas posted year-over-year increases in March, but the Johnson City area was the standout. It outperformed both the state and national indexes on the year-over-year comparisons and was the highest year-over-year increase since 2010.

CL HPI

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The three-county Johnson City metro index has shown steady increases since December but the March number was in opposition to both Kingsport-Bristol. Tennessee and national index trend movement. All were better on the y-y metric but moved down in the trend line movement. The Northeast Tennessee Association of Realtors’ Trends Report also noted a similar March y-y price trend softness.

Home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 11.8% in March 2016 compared with March 2015, according to CoreLogic. On a month-over-month basis, home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 4.4%.

In Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, home prices increased 2.4% in March while the month-over-month index was down 0.3%.

The national index shows home prices are up both year over year and month over month.

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 6.7% and the month over month by 2.1%, according to the CoreLogic HPI.

Tennessee year-over-year index was up 6.1%.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 5.3% on a year-over-year basis from March 2016 to March 2017, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to increase 0.7% from March 2016 to April 2016. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state. The forecast is made on the national level only.

“Housing helped keep U.S. economic growth afloat in the first quarter of 2016 as residential investment recorded its strongest gain since the end of 2012,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Low interest rates and increased home building suggest that housing will continue to be a growth driver.”

“Home prices reached the bottom five years ago, and since then have appreciated almost 40 percent,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “The highest appreciation was in the West, where prices continue to increase at double-digit rates.”

Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 30 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with a five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends among that include the Single-Family Combined tier representing the most comprehensive set of properties (including all sales for Single-Family Attached and Single-Family Detached properties). The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction structural model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a five-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales. As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, CBSA and ZIP Code-levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index.

 

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