Kingsport-Bristol FHFA HPI shows solid 2015 gains; other price reports show more balanced Tri-Cities performance


Now that the three primary reports are in it’s possible to get a broader picture of how Tri-Cities home prices performed across separate reporting platforms. All-in-all it was a year that saw historically typical price performance for this market with one exception.

5 yr HPIAlthough the year-to-year changes on the different models vary they show the same basic pattern with one exception. A notable take away is the region’s two MSA markets are moving in opposition on the Federal Housing Finance Administration 1-year HPI.

The FHFA 1-year and 5-year house price indexes also show a softer price gain than the Northeast Tennessee Association of Realtors’ Trends Report or the CoreLogic  All-Sales Home Price Index. That doesn’t mean there was a weakness in the overall Johnson City MSA market – only the component monitored by the FHFA reports.

1 year HPI

1-year FHFA House Price Index for last year

Here’s the data those three reports monitor:

  • NETAR Trends Report – this is a monthly report on the monthly, quarterly and annual average sales price of homes from the local Multiple Listings Service.
  • FHFA House Price Index – this index tracks changes in the average home prices by analyzing changes in home values for individual properties for mortgages sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It uses a repeat-transaction methodology to construct indexes estimated by statistically evaluating price appreciation or depreciation for homes with multiple values over time. It’s also an all-transaction index so it includes refinancing.
  • CoreLogic All-Sales Home Price Index – this index is a measures for multiple market segments based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales.

CoreLogic HPIHere’s how the year-to-year changes look for each report:

Kingsport-Bristol MSA

  • NETAR Trends Report – average annual price up 1.6%.
  • FHFA Q4 1-year HPI up 4.9%.
  • CoreLogic HPI year-to-year change up 2.6%.

 

Johnson City MSA

  • NETAR Trends Report, annual average sales price up 3%.
  • FHFA Q4 1 year HPI, down 0.7%.
  • CoreLogic HPI up 4.9%.

The FHFA also has a 5-year index for a little longer look at price performance. It shows the same core pattern of the 1-year index – the Kingsport-Bristol MSA index is showing stronger performance than the Johnson City MSA. The Q4 Kingsport-Bristol MSA is up 4.4% and the Johnson City MSA index is up 0.07%.

Kingsport-Bristol had stronger performance on this metric last year. It was up every quarter while the Johnson City MSA dropped into negative territory in the third quarter. There was fourth quarter growth but it has been softer in the Johnson City MSA than its neighbor to the north.

One mitigating factor for the FHFA is the refinancing volume compared to purchases.

The Q4 refinancing loan origination was 56.1% higher in the Johnson City MSA than it was in Q4 2014. In Kingsport-Bristol is was 27.7%.

During the same period the Johnson City loan origination rate for home purchases was up 123.3% compared to 29.8% increase for the Kingsport-Bristol MSA.

Total loan originations in the Johnson City MSA were up 8.9% while they were 13.7% higher in Kingsport-Bristol.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: