Tri-Cities HPIs break pattern, score same y-y Sept. change


CoreLogic’s current Home Price Index and Forecast report shows Kingsport-Bristol and the Johnson City MSA market saw identical year-to-year performance in September.

HPI

All-sales Home Price Index year-to-year change

In Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 4.4% in September compared with September 2014. They were 0.7% compared with August 2015.

The Johnson City MSA market also had a 4.4% year-to- year increase, but the month-to-month change was 0.5%.

Indexes for the two areas were tracking a similar pattern until August when the Johnson City index made some small decreases while the Kingsport-Bristol index increased.

The national index shows home prices are up both year over year and month over month.

According to the CoreLogic HPI, home prices nationwide increased by 6.4% in September increased by 0.6% when compared with August.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices are projected to increase by 4.7% on a year-over-year basis from September 2015 to September 2016, but could potentially dip slightly month over month from September 2015 to October 2015. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

“After nearly 10 years of very high home price volatility, home price increases have been remarkably stable for the last 15 months, ranging between a 4.8 percent and 6.5 percent year-over-year increase,” said Sam Khater, deputy chief economist for CoreLogic. “Home price volatility is now back to the long-term trend prior to the boom and bust which is a good barometer of the market’s stability and health.”

The CoreLogic HPI is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 30 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with a five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends among Single-Family Attached and Single-Family Detached properties. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts are based on a two-stage, error-correction structural model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a five-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales. As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review national scenarios to project home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, CBSA and ZIP Code-levels.

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: