Johnson City MSA continues to outperform Kingsport-Bristol housing market – both lag state, national gains

The CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) and HPI Forecast  August 2015 shows home prices are up both year over year and month over month.

Nationwide, including distressed sales, increased by 6.9% in August 2015 compared with August 2014 and increased by 1.2% in August 2015 compared with July 2015.

Tri-Cities markets followed the pattern, but with lesser year-over-year and month-over-month gains.

Kingsport-Bristol’s HPI, increased by 2.3% in August 2015 compared last year. On a month-over-month basis, August’s home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 0.2% when compared with July.

Johnson City’s market continued a pattern or outperforming the Kingsport-Bristol market. Home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 4.8% in August 2015 compared with August 2014 and were up 0.5% when compared to July.



As indicated by the HPI chart – the local markets are showing much wider swings that either the state or national market. And while they have been on positive ground – all year for Johnson City and since May for Kingsport-Bristol – they consistently underperform the year-over-year gains on the state and national levels.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices are projected to increase by 4.3% on a year-over-year basis from August 2015 to August 2016 and remain unchanged month over month from August 2015 to September 2015. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

The forecast is now broken down the MSA level.

“Economic forecasts generally project higher mortgage rates and more single-family housing starts for 2016. These forces should dampen demand and augment supply, leading to a moderation in home price growth,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Over the next 12 months through August 2016, CoreLogic projects its national HPI to rise 4.3%, less than the 6.9% gain over the 12 months through August 2015.”

The CoreLogic is a multi-tier market evaluation based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. nonconforming) and distressed sales. The CoreLogic HPI is a repeat-sales index that tracks increases and decreases in sales prices for the same homes over time, including single-family attached and single-family detached homes.

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